Unsettled Weather Through the Weekend.

Notice the QPF map on the right, valid through the day Friday. As has been pointed out several times over the last day or two, OK is pretty much at the center of a bulls eye for precipitation for that time period. The pattern responsible for the unsettled weather we will be dealing with all week long will also extend into the coming weekend, so those QPF estimates will likely rise before this is all said and done. Not only that, but the active week ahead will also produce multiple opportunities for severe weather across the state right on into the coming weekend.

The first opportunity for severe weather is on Monday with the greatest threat over the more western counties and the more eastern counties on the fringe of any severe storm possibilities. Current indications suggest storms firing to our W and NW late Monday will have a chance of moving our way during the late evening and more likely through the overnight hours. For now, am carrying a 20% chance of storms this far east and mainly for the Monday night into Tuesday morning time period. That is certainly subject to change though and suggest keeping a close on developing weather conditions all week long.

Mostly cloudy skies and light winds should hold temperatures in the 50s for tonight except along the OK/KS state line where some upper 40s will be possible. We should see some sunshine during the day Monday along with daytime highs reaching the low-mid70s. Another frontal boundary will arrive early Tuesday morning with a more NE wind through the day Tuesday and mostly cloudy skies holding daytime temperatures in the 60s to near 70. That boundary will also stall out along the Red River and back into the TX Panhandle with a chance of showers/storms behind the boundary later Tuesday and Tuesday night.

By Wednesday we will be back into a return southerly flow at the surface which will be strong and gusty for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Meanwhile, aloft we will be dealing with a NW flow pattern for the next few days which should keep most of the showers/storms just west of us. But, as mentioned in the morning discussion, NW flow patterns are notorious for pulling surprises so that may change.

By later in the week, a stronger storm system will be approaching from the west. That particular system is still in the Pacific Ocean at this time so it has not been adequately sampled by our observational network as yet. Nonetheless, the longer range guidance has been pretty consistent so far and suggests a very active period for late this week through the weekend. There will be multiple opportunities for showers/storms and some severe weather during that time frame. Given this pattern, there will be some days that will have better chances than others, but at this time it is impossible to say with any certainty which days those would be. So, have used a rather broad brush placement of rain chances until we see better data initialization of that system. In fact, have opted to keep at least a chance of showers/storms pretty much every day during the coming week. Really hate to do that, but given the pattern don't feel like there is any real choice.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot