Warm Again Monday, Storms Possible Mon Night.

According to the OK Climatological Survey, not only did Tulsa set a record for the warmest March ever, but so did the rest of the state. Not only that, but according to their records, 19 of the past 24 months have been warmer than normal and this past March marks the third time in the last 9 months that statewide temperatures have set monthly records. The other two months were July & August of 2011. According to the Climate Prediction Center, there is a good chance that April will be warmer than normal as seen by the image on the right. As for the coming summer, quite frankly there is not a lot of skill in seasonal outlooks as evidenced by this past winter and last summer. We can look back at what happened in other summers that were so warm to start the year and I will do that in subsequent blogs.

In the short term, April has obviously started off extremely warm with the first 90 degree day of the year for many of us this afternoon, and Monday will be extremely warm as well. In fact, we will start Monday morning near record levels as temperatures are not expected to cool off much tonight due to brisk southerly winds which will continue throughout the overnight hours. Monday morning will only be in the mid-upper 60s to start the day under fair skies. Monday afternoon will be back into the upper 80s but should stay short of the 90 degree mark as more clouds are expected to be moving in by late afternoon. Gusty southerly winds will also be the general rule through the day Monday.

Our next storm system has finally made landfall along the west coast so it is in the observational network and we have better data initialization. As a result, the various computer solutions are coming into better agreement regarding its timing and intensity. This system will be spinning around the Southern Rockies and then wobbling its way over OK through Wednesday and into the day Thursday. Due to its slow movement, there will be the potential for locally heavy rains before it finally drifts on eastward.

Bottom line is that we expect an unsettled pattern from Monday night through the day Wednesday and quite possibly into Thursday morning. Storms should be developing in W OK Monday evening and some of them reaching E OK Monday night. Some of those may be severe. Showers and storms will be more likely for Tuesday and Wednesday and along with the mostly cloudy skies and a more N to NE wind will also result in cooler temperatures. In fact, there is a significant temperature forecast bust potential as the exact location of the surface wind shift line is going to be difficult to predict very far in advance and the much cooler air behind the boundary may be underestimated.

At any rate, conditions should be improving Thursday and Good Friday is looking very pleasant. Another weaker, but fast moving system now looks to be moving through the state over the Easter Weekend bringing a slight chance of showers/storms.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot