More Warm Air

A stationary boundary is located across part of Northwestern OK into central Kansas to Missouri this morning and is expected to slowly move northward later today. This means all of our area will remain

Wednesday, March 28th 2012, 6:26 am

By: Alan Crone

Later today a small disturbance will interact with the boundary across Kansas and produce some scattered thunderstorms well north of the state. Later tonight a few of these storms may form a small cluster of thunderstorm activity and move southeast into far northeastern OK. Most of the operational models keep this small cluster in southeastern Kansas, but the NSSL 4kWRF brings the leading edge of the MCS into northeastern OK between 10pm tonight and about 3am tomorrow morning. This model is usually good with early to mid-spring convective systems, and I will keep a mention of this small probability in the forecast for later tonight.

Thursday evening into Friday another mid-level wave will be approaching the state from the west. This should also provide the lift for scattered showers and storms that could develop across Eastern OK Friday and Friday night. Some of the operational models are hinting at a small MCS signal for part of the state late Friday night into Saturday morning, but this probability will remain on the low side. It appears that most of the state this weekend will be precipitation free.

Gusty southwest winds will develop Sunday with afternoon highs moving into the mid or upper 80s before a strong cold front arrives Sunday evening into early Monday. The veering component of the wind may push the better moisture to the east for this event, and we'll only keep a 20% pop for the time period.

The air behind this system may end up cooler than current model projections. Our forecast will continue to call for lows in the 40s early next week with highs in the 70s. There is an outside chance of daytime highs in the 60s Monday and Tuesday, but the confidence remains, of course, low for extended data into early next week.