Warmer Temps, Sunshine Expected This Weekend

Looks like one more day of rain, showers, and possible storms before things start to settle down and that will be just in time for the coming weekend. The storm system responsible for the rains of the last few days is located in SW OK this afternoon and will be gradually wobbling over our part of the state during the next 24-36 hours. It has some very cold air aloft and a rather tight circulation which adds up to some potential problems as it moves over NE OK on Thursday.

In the first place, the cold air aloft means the freezing level is much closer to the ground than would normally be the case for a spring time severe weather event. That, in turn, means any storms that form will have an enhanced hail making potential along with brief, locally heavy rainfall.

The second issue is the tight circulation aloft which means there is already a significant rotational component to the winds. There will also be some directional wind shear between the surface winds and aloft. This all adds up to an enhanced threat of funnel clouds and possibly a few brief tornado reports. There have been a number of those associated with the system in SW OK this afternoon as you can see from the photo on the right. We anticipate that will also be the case as the system moves over this part of the state Thursday. These type funnel clouds rarely make it all the way to the ground and when they do they are very weak and only on the ground very briefly. But, they can still cause some problems so it will have to be watched very carefully.

One of the contributing factors for any storms of that intensity to develop would be some sunshine during the day. Right now, it appears we will be overcast with surface temperatures only in the 50s to near 60. However, if we do get some sunshine and it warms up more than that, then we will be dealing with greater instability and a greater chance of severe storms.

At any rate, by Friday we expect to be on the backside of this system as it gradually drifts on eastward. That should result in any lingering showers confined to the extreme eastern counties and partly cloudy skies elsewhere. For the weekend, we expect lots of sunshine, warmer temperatures, and no mention of rain. Our next chance for showers or storms should hold off till late Tue or Wed of next week.

So, after Thursday, it looks like we will have a nice stretch of weather extending through the weekend and to start the following week.

As always, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot