Major System Nearing

A major storm system will impact the Eastern OK area with severe weather threats including significant flooding issues.  The system will be slow to exit the region resulting in several days of the active weather pattern.  Heavy rainfall will be the main issue allowing for some significant flooding, but severe storms including large hail and possibly a tornado or two will be possible today.  

The main upper level system is to our west this morning and will slowly meander eastward today before becoming cut off from the upper air flow.  The surface features will present a slow moving front that will become a focus for additional storm development this morning, tonight, and also tomorrow.  The upper level wind flow will become parallel to the surface boundary allowing for a training of thunderstorms over much of Eastern OK and western Arkansas.  This training will result in possibly significant rainfall totals from 4 to 8 inches common with higher amounts nearing 10 to 12 inches possible in a narrow area of southeastern OK into Northwestern Arkansas.  Model data output is suggesting significant rainfall may occur that could result in life threatening flooding in some areas of Eastern OK.  Rivers and streams will almost certainly flood, some at major flood stage, if the forecast amounts verify.  This would result in river flooding of the Illinois, Poteau, and Kiamichi Rivers.  Other smaller streams and rivers will also flood.  Please remain aware of low water crossings and flood prone areas during the next 60 hours and make efforts to move to high ground.  

The model data keeps the low near our area until Thursday evening or early Friday morning.  This would result in heavy rainfall threats tonight, Tuesday, and part of Wednesday.  The upper level low will result in some low topped convection across northern OK and southern Kansas Thursday and Friday before the low finally moves into the upper Midwest.  There is a chance we'll be dry slotted Thursday as the low begins to move northward, and I have lowered the pops Thursday to a 30% chance.  

While the main focus of this system will be the heavy rainfall and flooding threat, a severe weather threat will also remain including the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a few tornadoes this afternoon and tonight, but mainly across southeastern Ok and a large portion of north Texas.

This system is a broad reaching system including the potential for heavy rainfall and severe storms across a large part of Texas, Ok, Ark, Kansas, and Missouri.  Other storms may also form more northward into the upper Midwest.   

All residents of Eastern OK should remain aware of this weather situation and seek appropriate shelter if warnings are issued for your area.  Preparations should be made now for those areas that are prone to flooding.