Cold and Wet

Expect cloudy, cold, and wet conditions today with temperatures falling into the 40s by midday and early afternoon.  The unsettled weather pattern will remain through part of the weekend.

We're tracking a fast moving cold front that will move across the area this morning bringing a round of thunderstorms followed by scattered showers and much colder air.  Temperatures this morning (3AM) will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s but readings will be quickly falling into the mid-40s by early to mid-morning.  North winds will blow in the 15 to 25 mph range creating wind chills in the upper 20s and lower 30s.  There will be a very slight chance of a few strong storms this morning that may produce some quarter sized hail. Later today the front will slide into far southeastern OK and Northeast Texas where a few surface based thunderstorms will be possible.  These storms could be severe with damaging wind, large hail, and a weak tornado.  

The temperatures these past few days have moved into the lower 70s but we're looking for much colder air arriving this morning that will bring a taste of winter time back to the region for a few days.  

The main upper level low will slow down and become cut off to the west.  The extended data has been all over the place regarding the outcome of this system, but the net impact will be a decent chance of rain Saturday evening into Sunday morning.   

The GFS has been suggesting the main upper level trough will split into two pieces with one low moving southward and the other moving eastward across the central plains.  The EURO had been keeping the trough in one wave and generating quite a bit of precipitation for the Saturday and Sunday time periods.  The confidence for the weekend forecast remains quite low when dealing with specific timing and location of the best rain chances, but I'll continue to keep a healthy amount of rain chances into the mix for Saturday afternoon and evening into early Sunday.   

Later tonight or early Friday morning, locations across far northwestern OK may see some light wintry mix or flurries as the first part of the system becomes cut off from the upper air flow.  The air directly beneath the upper level low will be very cold and any precipitation will change to either sleet or snow.  This will remain well west of our area, but it's interesting that some of our neighbors in far northwestern OK may see some wintry precip later tonight.  

The extended ensembles suggest the upper air flow will remain from the southwest into early next week.  This means a warming trend for the southern plains with the potential for more active weather late next week.

We're heading to another Wild Weather Camp this morning in the Mannford area.  I'll [post more about our adventures tomorrow morning.   

Be sure and grab the big coat and the rain gear this morning.  You're going to need it today!