Tracking Showers and Storms

Showers and storms will be in the forecast today as a strong upper level system moves closer to our area.   Afternoon highs will be in the upper 50s across Northeastern OK with lower or mid-60s common south of I-40.  A storm system may approach the area Friday night into Saturday with colder air.

A complex surface pattern will exist today.  A surface low will move across northern Ok today while dragging a pacific boundary-dry line from the west to the east.  Later tonight a cold front will move across the region bringing gusty northwest winds and temps falling into the upper 30s.  

Scattered showers and storms will be likely this morning across northern Ok and a few of these storms may produce some hail as colder air aloft spreads over the region.  A surface warm front to our south will move northward later today bringing some lower and mid-60s to locations south of the warm front and upper 50s for locations north of the boundary.  At this hour, it appears the warm front may stay south of Tulsa and I'll keep the Tulsa area near 57 for highs today.  Locations from Okmulgee to McAlester will be in the warmer air and should move into the lower 60s later in the afternoon.  I think the clouds will probably stick around for most of the day but the clouds may attempt to thin out after the 4pm hour near and west of Tulsa while remaining cloudy across the eastern third.  The western part of the state will clear out after the morning hours and will feature gusty west winds and temps in the 60s. 

Thursday and Friday appear pleasant and mild, but we may have some issues Friday night into Saturday. 

The model data(GFS) has thrown a curve last night by bringing colder air to the region Saturday along with an upper level system to our south.  These features would produce some precipitation that could fall in the form of snow.  I will not make any changes to the forecast this morning regarding Saturday, but it's something we'll be watching closely in the data later today.  The EURO keeps all the precip well south of the state, but the GFS has suggested for the last 2 to 3 runs the possibility of colder air and some precipitation signals.  The very latest output from the 00z GFS had the 850 0c isotherm near or slightly north of I-40 Saturday morning with surface temperatures in the 30s.  We'll keep you posted.