A Windy and Warm Monday

The forecast has several uncertainties regarding storm chances for Tuesday into Wednesday and for a possible system by the end of the week.  But we'll give it our best shot and request that you check back often for updates to the forecast.

The first 48 hours appears to be solid.  We'll see sunshine with high clouds along with gusty south winds at 15 to 30 mph.  This will enhance the fire danger across the state as dry vegetation and gusty winds will create a fast fire spread condition.

Daytime highs both today and tomorrow will move into the upper 60s, with a few lower 70s possible across western Ok unless the high cirrus becomes to widespread.  Regardless, the highs will be about 15 to 18 degrees above the normal high for the area.

A cold front arrives Tuesday night around 10 to 11pm bringing a slight chance of showers or storms to the eastern part of the state.  At this point, there will be a few scenarios to the forecast, but I'll post details to our current scenario of choice.

We think the Tuesday night boundary will slide back northward across at least southern OK creating a chance for a few storms Wednesday near and north of the boundary.  If this occurs, a few storms could produce some marginally severe hail.  We'll keep this pop on the low side with a 20 pop to cover. 

The return flow from the south will commence Thursday afternoon with highs in the mid-60s and partly cloudy conditions.  An upper level low will begin to move across the Rockies and then dive across the southern plains.  This will create a chance of showers Friday into Saturday.  The question will remain regarding the temperature profile for this event.  The models have been doing flipping almost with ever run offering very little confidence in specific details.  We'll keep the temps in the 50s for Friday highs and then into the lower 40s for Saturday afternoon highs.  I have increased the rain chances Friday, but have not introduced any pops for the Saturday period for this update.  We may make major changes to this period of the forecast, so please check back often.  

The arctic oscillation is now in the negative range and this means some of the very cold air across the Polar Regions will have a shot of moving southward.  The trajectory for these cold air masses this winter has been to our northeast.  The odds will remain that most if not all of the significant cold air will remain across the Midwest, but only time will tell.  We'll be able to experience some short but strong intrusions of cold air within the next 2 to 3 weeks.  Stay tuned.