Cold and Windy for Tuesday.

Notice the soil temperature map at 2 inches below ground level and under sod on the right. This is another example of the wealth of data provided by our OK Mesonet. The point I wanted to make is that the soil temperatures near the surface were cooler than the dew point temperature of the air this morning which is why the pavement was wet. The moisture in the air condensed on the cooler pavement much as the outside of a glass of ice water gets wet during the summer.

Unfortunately, the layer of moisture is quite shallow and as my Dad used to say is only knee high to a tall grasshopper. There is also some moisture much higher up as evidenced by the mid-high level cloudiness we have had all day. In between, it is quite dry so even though a strong cold front will be pushing across the state later tonight it will not have much to work with till it gets on east of most of us where the deeper, better quality moisture will be. A few showers and possibly even some thunder will be possible around the Grand Lake area and on eastward late tonight.

The biggest change will be the sharply colder temperatures we will have during the morning hours of Tuesday. The cold front will not be reaching most of us till well after midnight, so we can expect temperatures to remain in the 50s and 60s until the front arrives. Gusty S to SW winds ahead of the front will shift to northerly and will be quite strong and gusty for much of the day Tuesday. This will drop temperatures to near freezing after sunrise Tuesday and the wind chill values will likely be in the teens for much of the morning. Some moderation along with lots of sunshine is expected for the afternoon.

Wednesday morning should start off clear and cold followed by moderating temperatures for the rest of the week. How much moderation is up for debate as there are indications of shallow, relatively cool air trying to move back over us along about Friday. Right now, it does not look like it will be much more than a wind shift for Fri going into Saturday and we should be back to southerly winds for another warm day on Sunday. That is certainly subject to change though as is our next decent shot at rain.

The longer range guidance had been advertising a decent shot at showers and possibly some thunder on Monday, but the solutions have not shown much consistency with the latest set of data. Even so, it is starting to look like next week will see the start of a more unsettled pattern with at least chances of moisture. We can certainly use it.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot