Warming Trend

After a brief bout with winter, a significant warm-up will be taking place through Monday before another brief bout with cold air returns. So far, the cold air just has not stuck around for very long and that trend is expected to continue through the next week if not longer.

For today, Sunday, and Monday the main challenge is how warm to go each day and the main weather threat is an enhanced fire danger due to gusty southerly winds for Sunday and Monday. With only a few high level cirrus clouds, we will have lots of sunshine today and temperatures which should make it into the low-mid 50s which is well above normal. That is despite a NW wind of 8-15 mph behind a weak frontal boundary that has moved through the state. With no snow pack across the high plains, these NW winds don't have much cold air to work with resulting in rapidly moderating temperatures.

Sunday and Monday will see strong and gusty S to SW winds which will create an enhanced fire danger situation. Those winds will try to bring some moisture with them but the deeper, quality moisture will be shunted off to the east where there will be a slight chance of showers Monday afternoon. We will, however, see an increase in cloud cover by Sunday night through the day Monday, but temperatures will still soar into the 60s Sunday and near 70 Monday. After a chilly start Sunday morning with lows near freezing, Monday morning will start off near 50 due to those southerly winds and the increasing cloud cover. So, the conditions for the MLK parade on Monday will be dry and windy but very mild for this time of year.

The next cold front is still on schedule to arrive Monday night with only a slight chance of showers for the more eastern counties. Skies will be clearing Tuesday and gusty N winds will maintain an enhanced fire danger once again. Temperatures will be much cooler with daytime highs only in the lower 40s. Wednesday morning will start off clear and cold but a moderating trend will start that afternoon which should extend through the rest of the week and into the coming weekend.

Another weak boundary may arrive over the Friday/Saturday time frame, but its influence looks to be not much more than a shifting of the winds. As mentioned, the lack of snow cover to the north of us is one of the factors limiting the extent of the cool down when these frontal boundaries come through. The bottom line is we only cool off for a couple of days followed by a rapid warm-up. At least that has been the trend for most of this winter and there is currently no indication of any major change in that pattern.

So, enjoy the mild weather, stay tuned, and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot