Breezy and Warmer

After a very cool but close to normal day yesterday, we're heading into the lower or mid 50s both today and tomorrow.  Gusty south winds will return today but a weak front will cause the winds to veer from the northwest tomorrow.  Very little change in temperature will be possible tomorrow despite this weak system crossing the area.  The fire danger will be increasing over the next few days and temperatures will continue to climb into the lower and mid 60s by the end of the week.  

The main issue today continues to center on the weekend forecast.  The Euro has been hinting at a closed low crossing the state resulting in a winter storm, while the GFS has hinted at a much weaker and open system resulting in a few flakes and a minor cool down.  The last run of the EURO is not nearly as robust with a closed low directly over the state compared to previous outputs.  It tries to form the low and drops it more southward with time.  There is no run to run consistency in the data but the GFS may be a little closer to showing some consistency.  This is a little odd due to the usually more stable and consistent EURO model.  I didn't include any precip yesterday for this time period and I'm inclined to keep the weekend dry for another day while mentioning the possibility of a system nearby that could produce some light precip.   

Extended data also continues to support the growth of arctic air well north that will attempt to dislodge within the next 10 to 12 days.  We've seen these solutions in the data a few times before but since we're moving into a climatologically favored time of year, we're watching closely.  

Otherwise the rest of the week appears above normal with the increased threat of wild fire spread potential.  Use some caution and report suspicious activity to the authorities.   Some fires are obvious accidents or caused by inattentive behavior.  Some fire is caused by individual's intent to create problems when winds are strong. 

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Enjoy the weather.