Cooler Today

The cold front moved across the area shortly after midnight bringing gusty north winds and cooler air back to the region after yesterday's highs in the mid and upper 60s.  The boundary is to our south, but another upper level wave will move up into the southern plains soon bringing another round of showers or even a few storms to southeastern OK and Northeast Texas.  Most if not all of this activity will remain to the southeast of Tulsa, but our neighbors to the south will have a high chance of seeing the showers or storms later tonight through pre-dawn Friday.  

Friday appears to be on the cool side with highs in the upper 40s along with some sunshine. 

The first part of the weekend appears fine, but Sunday into Monday another major storm system will be arriving in the southern stream.  This system will also be a very dynamic storm with increasing moisture profiles in the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere.  Severe weather will be a possibility across North Texas and points southward with moderate to heavy rainfall potential for central and northern OK late Sunday evening into Monday.   

This system may lift out across the southern plains as a closed low.  This means the air directly within the low will be very cold, below freezing, and would offer a substantial chance of snow directly underneath the closed low.  This column cooling is a classic late fall and early winter system feature that produces snow under the low.  But the model data from the EURO suggests the system will remain slightly open and with less cold air compared to the GFS offering a major closed low lifting across northwestern OK Monday evening and into northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas Tuesday morning.  I'm inclined to disregard the GFS solution and favor the slightly warmer and less closed EURO solution for this period.  The GFS has had a horrible track record on systems in the 5 to 8 day range over the past 3 months, and there's no doubt in my mind the data will change again between now and Saturday. I will make mention today of this rain to snow possibility for the northwestern OK areas.  

After this major system passes, we should be in store for a few days of uneventful and seasonal weather.  A cold front should move across the area Thursday, but temperatures may even be a few degrees above normal for the Christmas weekend.  The southern stream has been very active and I would anticipate another system directly after Christmas somewhere in the southern plains.   

We're still in the face book mode, but I'm discovering the fast and ease of twitter.   You're more than welcome to follow me on twitter ( alancrone) and go to the fan page of Alan Crone and hit like.  Have a super great day.