Warmer, Wetter.

Ok, Christmas is less than 2 weeks away now and given the blizzard on Christmas Eve two years ago and how cold it was last Christmas, there is no doubt some concern about this coming Christmas. Some of our long range guidance does go out to 16 days, so we do get a peek at what may be happening beyond the normal forecast range of 7 days. But, the further out in time we go, the more unreliable the guidance quickly becomes and it is usually an exercise in futility to try and be very specific for an event more than a week in advance.

Having said that, the pattern that has developed so far this winter seems to be repeating itself at fairly regular intervals and there are indications that will continue to be the case leading up to Christmas. That pattern is one in which a dominant ridge aloft located over the N Pacific continues to push storm systems into the extreme Southern Rockies which then eventually eject eastward out over the Plains. That is what will be happening over the next two days and what should happen again late in the weekend and into early next week. Assuming that pattern persists, another storm system should move through along about the Friday before Christmas leaving Christmas Day between storms for here in Oklahoma. Notice for example the surface map on the right which is valid for Christmas Morning. IF there are no changes in the timing of these storm systems, then Christmas Day looks promising….but, that is a mighty big IF.

In the meantime, one of those storm systems will be moving out of the southern Rockies over the next two days keeping us overcast with occasional periods of light rain and showers. Most of the rain should be shifting further to the N and NW during the day Tuesday and the southerly winds should get us into the 50s after staying in the 40s overnight. Wednesday still looks to be a wet day with widespread showers and the potential for some thunder as the main system moves overhead and pushes a cool front along with it.

That cool front will clear us out and cool us off for Thu and Fri before clouds move back in over the course of the weekend. The weekend has come into better focus now with the longer range guidance in better agreement. It now appears that rain will be spreading back this way during the day Sunday and continuing into the day Monday. With these systems moving through periodically and no sign that this pattern will change anytime soon, we continue to put dents in the drought situation across the state as well.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot