Those strong southerly winds of Friday and overnight have brought abundant low level moisture over the state this morning and the result will be little or no sunshine for the next several days. The low level stratus deck will likely stay with us right on through Monday night before clearing out later on Tuesday. Despite the cloud cover, there is only a very slight chance of a shower later today and that will be confined to the extreme SE counties of our state.
Those clouds will also keep our southerly winds somewhat in check as the low level cloud deck typically keeps the stronger winds aloft from mixing all the way down to the surface. Even so, we can expect southerly winds of 15-30 mph so it will be rather windy again today. The higher humidity levels as suggested by the clouds will mitigate the fire danger somewhat.
A strong cold front will be arriving during the overnight hours and stalling out across extreme SE OK on Sunday. Look for the winds to be shifting to a northerly direction around the midnight hour for Tulsa and it will bring a dramatic change in temperatures. After starting off in the 60s this morning and reaching the lower 70s this afternoon, Sunday will start off in the mid 40s and will struggle to get much warmer, if at all, during the day. Cloudy skies, northerly winds of 10-20 mph and a 30% chance of light rain or drizzle are expected throughout the day Sunday.
The front should still be nearly stationary across the extreme SE counties on Monday with the shallow pool of cool air behind the front moderating very little, if at all. That means another short thermometer on Monday along with increasing chances of rain. A stronger disturbance aloft will be moving across the Plains and will produce a widespread area of rain with embedded heavier showers and storms, particularly for Monday night. Notice the QPF map on the right and you can see that there is the potential to put another significant dent in the drought, especially for the more SE counties. Unfortunately, if this verifies, there may also be some localized flooding due to the potential for training of the showers and storms. Any threat of severe storms should be confined to the extreme SE counties.
The rain is expected to be ending Tuesday morning as the system moves on eastward followed by lots of sunshine for Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day. Unfortunately, strong southerly winds will likely return in time for Thanksgiving Day itself, but other than that, Turkey Day should be pleasant.
There are preliminary indications of another rapidly moving system coming this way Friday which could bring with it a threat of showers/storms for late Friday. That would be followed by northerly winds on Saturday and cooler conditions with perhaps some lingering morning showers.
So, the bottom line is that the next few days will be rather unsettled, late Monday and Monday night in particular, but Thanksgiving Day itself still looks promising except for the winds. Stay tuned and check back for updates.