High Fire Danger Saturday

One would think that with the recent rains of the past week, that the drought situation has been eliminated. After all, the soil is wet now. However, the map on the right clearly shows that the drought is far from over, particularly for our more western and SE neighbors. Granted the recent rainfall has replenished the top soil moisture, but the subsoil remains quite dry and the recent rains did not do much to replenish the low levels in our streams and lakes. Yes, those recent rains did put a serious dent in the drought situation, but it is far from over; we need more rain.

And, more rain is in the short term forecast, particularly for the more drought stricken SE corner of the state. A system will be moving across northern Mexico this weekend and most of its focus will be further south by later Monday and Monday night. However, for the more SE counties, they have a good shot at another inch or so of showers and storms. There will likely be a rather tight moisture gradient with this system with the rain chances tapering off rapidly to the NW. Right now, it appears that the gradient will be setting up to the SE of the I-44 corridor with little or no rain to the NW of the I-44 corridor for the Mon-Mon night time frame.

Ahead of this system, strong S to SW winds of 20-35 mph with some higher gusts will create another high fire danger situation today. Clouds have already moved in ahead of it but the chances of rain will wait till Monday. So, mostly cloudy to at times partly cloudy skies but dry conditions are expected for today and Sunday. A weak boundary will be moving into the northern part of the state later Sunday and gradually on southward on Monday. This will relax the pressure gradient so that the southerly winds will not be as strong and gusty on Sunday or Monday. Temperatures will be quite mild with the clouds and southerly flow keeping us well above normal through Monday.

A stronger cold front will push on through Monday night followed by clearing skies for Tuesday and a return to cooler, more stable conditions for the rest of the week. By the coming weekend, gusty southerly winds look to be returning which will start warming things back up.

The bottom line is that we have had some short term mitigation of the ongoing drought, but we still have not had the widespread, statewide, drought busting rainfall that is needed. The current weather pattern supports systems coming through from time to time which will bring some additional localized relief, and for that we are grateful.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot