Chance Storms Late Monday.

Sunday, October 16th 2011, 5:37 pm
By: News On 6

Except for a chance of showers/storms late Monday and into the overnight hours, our prospects for any significant rainfall are pretty much in the slim to none category for the next two weeks. The map on the right shows the precipitation probability not for this coming week but for the week after that and we are clearly in the below normal category. That means our chances of a drought busting rain over the next two weeks are very unlikely.

As mentioned, we do have a chance of storms late Monday as a strong cold front will be pushing across the state. Actually, a weaker boundary will be arriving this evening/night and stalling out along the I-44 corridor by morning. Light winds near the boundary with E to NE winds behind it and S to SW winds ahead of it will at least allow the fire danger to diminish for the overnight hours. This will also allow temperatures to cool off into the 50s by morning.

This boundary may move back north as a warm front during the morning hours before a stronger surge of much cooler air moves this way during the afternoon and evening hours. As a result, there will be quite a temperature gradient from N to S across the state during the late afternoon. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to near 90 south of the boundary and in the lower 70s behind the boundary. Also, gusty southerly winds ahead of the boundary will be shifting to northerly as soon as the front moves through.

Although the moisture is somewhat limited, the strength of the dynamics suggests showers/storms will be developing late in the day and quickly moving to the SE during the evening/overnight hours. For locations along the hwy 75 corridor, I have upped the chances to 50% for late in the afternoon. For locations further, east the chances will be more like 80%. Some of these storms will pose a marginal severe threat with winds/hail the primary concern. Since they will be moving through rather quickly, rainfall totals will be limited, but some locations could pick up a quick ½" of rain. Certainly not a drought breaker, but it will help in the short term.

After that, gusty northerly winds for Tue and Wed will result in a significant cool-down and also result in an enhanced fire danger situation once again; despite what rains we receive Monday night. By Wednesday morning, some of the cooler valley areas may see 30s and patchy frost. Thursday morning still looks to be the coolest with frost/light freeze a possibility. That is complicated somewhat by the timing of an upper level system which will bring more clouds or way on Thursday, but at this time looks to be dry.

After that, a return to southerly winds and a warming trend should prevail through the coming weekend. Also, another rather strong cool front looks to be headed this way early that following week, but as mentioned, the rain prospects with it do not look very impressive at this time.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot