If you read the blog from this morning, you should have noticed a QPF map and a 2011 total rainfall map for the state of Oklahoma. At that time, I mentioned that hopefully the forecast rainfall for the western counties of the state did not come all at once as that would lead to some drainage issues. The map on the right shows the rainfall up through late this afternoon and many locations have received a good soaking so far with more falling. Unfortunately, the rain has come a little too fast for some locations and flood watches are also in effect. That's Oklahoma for you, going from drought to flood over the course of a weekend.
The rainfall map on the right also shows that so far the rains have been pretty well confined to areas west of I-35. That should remain the case through the overnight hours and for much of the day Sunday. Much of the energy with the system that is responsible for the rains is moving more northward than eastward, but eventually it will drift far enough east for us to get our chance. However, the system will have weakened considerably by then so it now looks like showers with possibly some embedded thunder and rainfall totals much less than what is occurring just to our west.
There will be a very tight east-west precipitation gradient with rain likely along I-35 to start the day on Sunday but further east there is only a slight chance of a Sunday shower. By late Sunday night and into the day Monday is when we will have our best chance, but as mentioned, the system will be much weaker by then so the showers will be on a more scattered basis and not as heavy. Even so, some locations may receive as much as .5-.75 inches of rain by the time it is all said and done.
A few showers may linger into Tuesday and also on Wednesday which is when the next cool front should be arriving. The extra clouds and chances of rain ahead of the front will drop our daytime highs somewhat, but temperatures will still be generally above normal. Behind the front, clear skies, cooler nights and mild days are expected going into the coming weekend.
On a personal note, have been on vacation last two weeks and sure appreciate the rest of the weather staff covering for me. Wife and I took the leaf peeper tour of New England. Missed the peak by a week or so, but still had a very nice trip.
Anyway, stay tuned and check back for updates.