If you have been following my blogs over the last few days, I have often referred to the QPF(Quantitative Precipitation Forecast), the most recent of which is on the right. This one is valid through Saturday morning and shows a decent amount of rain across much of the state. The trend with these has been to shift the heavier rainfall amounts further south and if this verifies this will be the first decent rain for the SW portion of our state all year! In our corner of the state, we are still looking at a decent chance of showers and some embedded thunder for the latter part of the week. Although the total amounts do not look very impressive, keep in mind this is showing the average that is expected over a large area. Locally much heavier amounts may well occur and would not be surprised if some locations end up with an inch or more.
Before we get the wet stuff, we still have another day or two of summer to deal with and the heat, low humidity levels, and brisk southerly winds will also produce an enhanced fire danger situation through the day on Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures should be well above normal both days with highs in the low-mid 90s this afternoon and mid-upper 90s for Tuesday. Some triple digits are also expected on Tuesday and just how far north the triple digits make it is dependent on the timing of our next cool front.
The initial wind shift should be near the I-44 corridor by late in the afternoon or perhaps into the early night time hours of Tuesday. Ahead of the boundary, brisk southerly winds along with temperatures in the upper 90s with some triple digits mixed in can be expected. Behind the boundary, the air is not particularly cool despite a north wind and low-mid 90s will be expected. The cooler air will not really arrive in force till later Wed or Wed night. However, a brisk northerly wind will hold daytime temperatures in the 80s for Wed followed by much cooler conditions for the latter part of the week.
The boundary will eventually stall out well south of us keeping us with a brisk NE wind at the surface while aloft a series of disturbances will be moving overhead. The timing of these is always difficult, but after a slight chance of showers or thunder on Wednesday, Thursday still looks like we will have a good shot at a more widespread rainfall event. At least some scattered showers will linger into the day on Fri and the weekend also looks to be unsettled with the boundary still south of us and the upper level flow still supportive of systems coming our way periodically. Bottom line is that from Wed on we can expect to be much cooler and more unsettled weather with chances of rain each day through the weekend and quite likely into the following week.
We can certainly use the rain and after the brief heat wave of today and tomorrow, the cooler weather will also be a welcome relief.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.