Notice the max/min temperature map courtesy of the OK Mesonet on the right. If your location did not make it to 100, you were not far from it. Unfortunately, more of the same can be expected during the week ahead as we have one more week of extremely hot summer weather to endure. After that, we are still seeing indications of a change in the pattern over the coming weekend so there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
Monday could see a few morning showers and storms, particularly for the more E and NE counties. Right now, it looks like only about a 20% chance of any one location receiving measurable rainfall, but if this turns out to be more extensive than currently anticipated, then the lingering cloud cover and changes in the local winds could keep us below triple digits. Right now, that is a close call and will go right at 100 for most locations with the exception of the extreme east.
Tuesday will also be a close call with another cluster of storms expected to be moving across KS, but those are currently expected to stay north of the state line. As a result, daytime highs on Tuesday should be back into triple digit territory for just about all of us. Wednesday looks to be the hottest day of the coming week and we could set records before the day is over. Triple digit heat is also expected on Thursday, but after that we start seeing some gradual changes.
It still looks like the Gulf of Mexico will open up a bit more by Friday allowing for a deeper southerly wind flow and a correspondingly deeper layer of moisture moving into the state. That, in turn, means more cloud cover and increasing chances of showers and storms which should also knock our daytime temperatures back into the 90s. It will be at the expense of a higher humidity level though, so it will still be quite hot and humid.
Changes in the wind pattern aloft will eventually allow a stronger cool front to reach us and there continues to be some timing differences among the longer range guidance. The ECMWF model has the cool front arriving early Saturday with a nice cool down and dry conditions for Sunday and Monday. The GFS on the other hand is much slower, not bringing the front through till sometime Sunday but still cooling us off for Sunday and Monday. There will also be a better chance of showers and storms with the GFS solution. The model ensembles are more supportive a slower frontal passage and the way this summer has gone, that is probably the way to go. So, with that in mind, have started trending temperatures down over the weekend and kept rain chances in for Sat and Sun. This trend should also carry over into the following week.
So, after one more week of relentless summer heat, we are still seeing a good indication that changes are on the way. In the meantime, stay cool, stay tuned, and check back for updates.