Unfortunately the main story for the next several days will be the continuation of a major heat wave. A very impressive and large mid level ridge of high pressure is forecasted to build across northern OK and reach into the central plains by Monday and Tuesday. This ridge may slide eastward by the end of next week, but before this occurs; excessive heat will be building into the region. The only hope for any relief will come in the form of very isolated showers or storms. This chance will remain near 10% for the next 48 hours and mainly across the extreme eastern OK and western Arkansas areas.
The temperature heat index values will be near 105 to 110 with the surface temperatures ranging from 100 to 104 in many areas. The pressure gradient is expected to be very low and this means wind speeds will be relatively light for the next several days. Morning lows will also continue to build with temperatures remaining a few degrees warmer almost every consecutive morning in the near term. The most oppressive morning temperatures will be experienced in the Tulsa and OKC metro areas due to the heat island effect. Rural areas may cool down into the mid 70s but only very briefly before temperatures begin climbing quickly.
The data is supporting more of an easterly wind component for the next few days and this may take our daytime highs down about one or two degrees in some locations, but still above 100.
I have made some minor adjustments in the 7 day planner, but the highs will remain above 100.
The EURO and GFS suggests the mid level ridge should slide eastward by late next week allowing the chance of a few easterly waves to slide across the southern US into the southern side of the ridge. If the mid level ridge does not slide eastward, we'll be in a position to end July already well above normal before moving into climatologically the hottest time of the year.
Earlier this season, during late winter and early spring before the spring convective season began, the fire danger was extremely high. The next few weeks may also plunge the state into a serious fire danger threat with dry vegetation and hot air. The only positive is the expected light wind speeds for most of next week. Many of the local county administrations are issuing burn bans, and we are once again encouraging you to refrain from burning for the foreseeable future.
The Governor also issued burn bans yesterday for a large portion of the state.
Smart people (much smarter than your humble weather blogger) suggests a developing La Nina cycle possibly this fall. Next week I'll post more about what " La Nina" usually means for the state.
I don't think you'll like it very much at all.
Pray for rain… or even some clouds.