AM Storm Chance and Afternoon Heat

Wednesday, June 29th 2011, 5:12 am
By: News On 6

Another chance of morning showers and storms will occur until approximately 10 AM hour with afternoon highs moving into the upper 90s later this afternoon.  After the morning storm chance, the heat will be the focus of the forecast.

 A heat watch will be upgraded to a heat warning for most the northeastern portion of the state today.  This means dangerous heat may return quickly with surface temperatures in the upper 90s to 103 and morning lows in the upper 70s or lower 80s for the next several days.  Model data indicates the possibility of a veering surface wind Thursday and Friday which would allow even higher temperatures than currently forecast.  The short term periods will be focused on a decaying storm complex currently to our west.  A few of these should hold together over the next few hours.

 We're tracking another storm complex ( MCS) this morning out Northwestern OK.  The upper air flow combined with our old boundary is allowing the storms to move east and southeast this morning into our area.  A few of these storms could continue to be strong to severe before losing steam around daybreak or by mid morning. The majority of the storms will move into the central part of the state this morning but there is a chance the complex will slide eastward.  Thus the chance of showers and storms this morning through the mid morning hours.

 The mid level ridge will strengthen and bring triple digit weather back to the northeastern OK area Thursday through Sunday.  We continue to watch the extended models closely regarding an upper level system that should form in the Gulf and move northwest Friday and Saturday.  The GFS is the model now that continues to " split" the upper level ridge into two chunks allowing the mid level trough the move northward in-between the two ridge centers.  If this is the case, we would have periods of scattered showers and storms during the late afternoon periods of Sunday through Tuesday with highs in the mid or upper 90s.  I'll mention this slight probability on-air this morning but make no major changes to the 7 day planner.