This could be a record setting stretch before we get a break in the excessive heat. So far, the official low this morning has been 81 which breaks the record of 80 set back in the brutal summer of 1980 for warmest overnight low. The record high for today is 105 and we will not threaten that but the record for Monday is 102, also set in 1980, and we have a good shot at breaking that one. Not only that, but the record low for Monday morning is 80 and we will likely break that one as well.
The excessive heat during the day and the lack of relief at night will create quite a strain on air conditioning and cooling systems. Also, with dew point temperatures remaining in the upper 60s, the heat index will be at or above 105 which is in the dangerous category. This is why heat warnings and heat advisories are being issued as these factors make it difficult for the human body to cope. Keep in mind that the temperature is measured in the shade and if you are in direct sunlight, you can add another 15 degrees or so to what your body is fighting against. In other words, take it easy with the outdoor activities and try to stay in the shade as much as possible.
That's the bad news, is there any relief in sight? Turns out that there is. A frontal boundary will be moving across the state on Monday and is expected to be near the I-44 corridor shortly before sunset. It is the SW winds ahead of that boundary that will contribute to what should be a record high temperature on Monday, but this boundary will also bring some relief on Tuesday as well as at least a chance of showers and storms.
The surface boundary is expected to make it to I-40 by later in the day Tuesday and the more E to NE winds behind it along with more cloud cover should keep daytime temperatures in the low-mid 90s. As for our rain chances, a layer of very warm air aloft will be difficult to overcome but there should still be at least a 30% chance of showers and storms for Monday night through the day Tuesday.
After that, the surface boundary is expected to wash out and we will have a return to southerly winds for the rest of the week. The big question is how much rain falls on Monday night and Tuesday. If it turns out that the rains are more widespread and more generous than currently anticipated, then that rain footprint will help keep the daytime heating in check through the latter part of the week. Right now, I am not that optimistic regarding how much rain we will receive so I am bringing temperatures back up to around triple digits going into the coming weekend and am hoping to be wrong on that count!
So, stay cool, stay tuned, and check back for updates.