A weak disturbance is noted this morning moving out of southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. This disturbance may be able to generate a few high based showers across northwestern OK before sunrise, but I doubt this system will move into our area this morning. The NSSL 4k WRF does bring this system near our area around midday with a few high based showers, but most of this activity may stay to the northwest. Later this afternoon, a few storms may still form as afternoon highs move into the lower 90s and the boundary to our south slowly moves north.
Remember the big complex of storms that stretched from Southern Louisiana to the Mexican plateau yesterday morning? This complex effectively disrupted the flow of the low level moisture back into the southern plains and has acted to limit the amount of Gulf Moisture that may return with our warm front today and tonight. This may help to limit the overall coverage of showers and storms today with the retreating boundary, and may limit the MCS potential for tonight and early Friday morning. I will continue to keep a chance of showers and storms for later tonight and early tomorrow as the upper air flow from the northwest will remain in place for the next few days, but the confidence in these probabilities for the next 36 to 48 hours remains in the "iffy" category.
The mid level ridge of pressure currently to our west will slide eastward Sunday and will move firmly over our area Monday through most of next week. This is not good. This will limit our storm chances and bring the heat back into the southern plains with highs in the upper 90s near 100. The temperature heat index values will be increasing to over 105 to 110 and heat advisories will more than likely be required next week.
Western OK may roast with afternoon highs from 110 to 115 in the drought stricken areas of the state.
Late June and early July mid level ridges can be hard to breakdown once the ridge becomes established. A "normal" late June and early July climo period usually doesn't result in the long lasting" death ridge" but this year, all bets are off. We may need a tropical system to bring relief and the current flow would keep any tropical systems away from the ridge for a while. Experimental data supports a tropical system forming in the Gulf of Mexico next week that could move northward underneath the mid level ridge.