Active Upper Air Flow

High clouds with sunshine will be the call today with afternoon temperatures in the lower 90s.  The upper air flow will become active allowing for late night and early morning storm chances for the next few days. 

The dry air is allowing for wonderful morning readings in a number of locations across northern OK.  The Tulsa metro may bottom out around 67 with a few locations in the lower 60s across extreme northern OK and southern Kansas this morning.  The dry and pleasant weather will not last long.  The front to our south will return tonight and Thursday morning as a warm front bringing low level moisture back into the region.  The upper air flow will be from the northwest for the next several days and the mesoscale convective systems will be cranking out soon across the central plains.  These storm systems will have the chance to ride down the upper air flow into northern OK.  This is a very common pattern for mid June and frankly is a little late unfolding across our area.  The exact trajectory of any one of these systems will not be known until we see the beginning stages of the complex to our northwest, but the overall pattern means an above average chance of seeing some storms by Thursday morning with the retreating warm front and Friday morning across portions of northern OK with a mesoscale convective system.  My confidence remains a little low at this point because of the lack of exact timing and path.  This means I'll keep the chances on the low side, around 30% for Thursday morning and about 40% for Friday mornings forecast period.

 The ensembles suggest the mid level ridge will build back into the area by Monday if not Sunday.  If this is correct, the MCS machine will be shunted northeast by Sunday night effectively ending the storm chances for our area.  The EURO suggest the ridge will be getting stronger early next week and would result in very hot temperatures by Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly nearing 100 for eastern OK.  This is not good for our friends in southwestern OK where the daytime highs next week could approach the 110 to 113 range due to the effective feedback mechanisms of the ongoing extreme drought.  The heat index next week may exceed 105 in our areas and heat advisories may be required.