The surface winds across the state as of first thing this morning are shown on the map to the right from the good folks at the Ok Mesonet. Obviously much of EOK has very light winds with a more NE wind flow basically along and west of the I-44 corridor. That marks a weak frontal boundary that is expected to slowly sag southward during the day today, then drift back northward on Sunday.
This will do several things for us. One is the change in the winds will keep temperatures a little closer to their seasonal norms with highs expected to be in the mid-upper 80s for a change. Also, the boundary will provide a focus for showers and storms to be developing as the day wears on and becoming most likely during the afternoon and extending into the early night time hours. We can certainly use the rain although a few storms may become marginally severe with winds and hail the primary threats. Your chances of getting wet will be on the order of 40-50% from about Noon till about Midnight.
This boundary in the area will also keep our surface winds rather light at 10 mph or less and generally from an E to NE direction for most of us by this evening. As the boundary drifts back northward, our surface winds will return to a SE direction by first thing Sunday morning and then a gusty S wind is expected by Sunday afternoon. Gusty southerly winds will continue right on into early next week which also means a return to much above normal temperatures.
Another boundary will try to make a run at us along about Wednesday and should at least make it to the Ok/Ks state line. The longer range guidance is not very consistent regarding the treatment of this next system so will keep temperatures above normal for now and introduce only a slight chance of showers/storms. This is certainly subject to change as there are some indications that we may have a brief opportunity for a more NW flow pattern to develop aloft and if that does indeed turn out to be the case then we will be entering a more active period for the latter part of the week. Right now, there is too much uncertainty to get too excited about those prospects.
So, enjoy the break in the heat today and hope you catch a good rain without the wind/hail that may accompany some of the storms. As always, stay cool, stay tuned, and check back for updates.