One More Good Day, Then it Gets Interesting.

Certainly hope you are enjoying this unusually pleasant late Spring weather with the clear, cool nights and sunny, mild days. As might be expected, that will not be lasting much longer and the latter part of this week still looks to be very unsettled. In fact, the map on the right is what we refer to as a qpf which is a quantitative precipitation forecast. It is a manual product providing a nationwide estimate of the total amount of rain that may occur during the forecast time period, in this case through this coming Saturday morning.

Notice that much of the nation will likely get wet during that time frame and some locally significant rains may also occur. Notice also, that the drought stricken areas across the western half of our state have a shot at receiving some decent rainfall for the first time in a long time as well. Certainly hope that is indeed the case.

The cause of what will likely be a prolonged period of unsettled weather is a slow moving storm system that is currently moving onto the W Coast and will eventually settle into the southern Rockies and spin around out there for awhile. That will provide a deep southerly flow from the surface well into the upper atmosphere by later in the week which in turn will bring warm, humid conditions back over us and increase the clouds and rain chances.

Between now and then, we have another beautiful day to look forward to on Tuesday. Tonight will be clear and cool with light NE winds and temperatures back into the 40s. Lots of sunshine on Tuesday and a light E to NE wind will keep us well below normal once again.

By Wed morning, things could get a little interesting as a low level jet at around the 5,000' level will start bringing warm, moist air aloft into the state. This often results in some late night and early morning storms and that looks to be a possibility by then. The location of these storms is somewhat uncertain as the various solutions are differing in the strength and location of the low level jet. That is why we are only showing a 20% chance for now; those chances will likely go up when better data is received.

After that, the rest of the week and through the coming weekend and quite possibly well into the following week will see periodic episodes of showers and storms as the unsettled pattern looks to be rather persistent. Some severe storms can also be expected and some locally heavy rainfall may also occur before this pattern changes. Also, gusty southerly winds at the surface will result in very warm and humid conditions each day although the cloud cover and threat of rainfall should temper the extent of the daytime heating.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot