Fire Danger Remains

Mostly sunny conditions are expected today with some high clouds.  Afternoon highs will climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s with gusty south winds at 15 to 30 mph. 

The fire danger will remain high today and also tomorrow despite slightly higher humidity values this afternoon and more so tomorrow.  A Red Flag Warning will be required again today for portions of eastern OK.  A few scattered storms will be possible between now and Friday night across the area.  This chance will remain rather low, but if a storm could form it would be severe with super cellular characteristics.

A weak boundary is scheduled to nudge into northern OK this afternoon and should shift our winds from the south to the northeast from approx 10pm to about 6am Thursday morning.  This boundary will begin lifting northward as a warm front early Thursday morning.  A few storms will be likely on the cool side of this boundary.  This means the higher chances for storms would occur in Kansas and points northward.  I will keep a slight mention in the forecast for our neighbors along the border.

Thursday afternoon a sharp dry line is expected to surge rapidly eastward approaching the I-35 corridor by 5pm.  The cap, or layer of warm air aloft, is expected to suppress storm formation across eastern OK but even if one or two mature storms form, they would be severe, again with super cellular characteristics.

Friday night into Saturday morning a weak upper level disturbance will slide across the central plains and could spark off a few storms.  Again, this probability is not zero but remains low.

The better chance will be arriving either Saturday night into early Sunday morning, or Sunday afternoon.  The GFS continues to be fast compared to the EURO and we have based our forecast on the GFS timing.  This means the best chance for storms would be from 1AM Sunday to about 9AM Sunday with the front exiting the state around the noon hour. 

We'll get a break Monday and Tuesday of next week before another major system arrives Wednesday. 

Confidence: 8

Short term

Sunday: 6

Issues: timing of front.