We're tracking 2 short waves. The first wave will be arriving late tonight into early tomorrow. This will help to induce pressure falls across the Rockies and allow a stationary front south of our area this morning to move northward as a warm front later tonight. This boundary and returning low level moisture may interact with a low level jet to produce some scattered showers and storms early Friday morning. The coverage will remain very low, but a few storms are possible.
Friday night into Saturday yet another short wave will approach and a repeat performance may occur with a few showers or storms forming across eastern OK and western Arkansas early Saturday morning. This also is expected to be a small coverage but the parameters of the system would support the chance of some strong to severe storms. If storms form Friday night into pre-dawn Saturday, they could produce large hail. There may also be a slight chance for super cell storms that could also produce a tornado or two. I have raised the probability to near 40% for this time period.
The third system of interest will arrive Sunday evening into Monday bringing a chance of rain with colder air. The rain chances have actually dropped in the model data, but the run to run consistency factor remains very low. This system may not be sampled correctly for another day or two. I have kept the probability at 50% but this may come down in the next forecast cycle for the Monday event. The projected path of the surface low will be uncharacteristically south of Tulsa for this time of year. This will act to keep us in the cool stable air with little chance of severe weather.
The fire danger is continuing to be a concern. Numerous large fires were burning yesterday afternoon and early evening filling the sky with large plumes of smoke. If we don't get rain soon, agricultural interest will be in serious trouble across the state. We do have some hope in the forecast but even these forecasted events may only offer temporary relief if any at all.
I've been a little out of pocket the past few days and have had little time to blog anything other than basic weather information. I'm hoping to offer some additional nuggets of " stuff" soon, but I have to run this morning.
We're going to a "Wild Weather Show "this morning in Bixby and Glenpool. These are the last Wild Weather Shows of the year. Probably good timing. We usually have a very active weather pattern unfolding about this time of year with the severe weather threat ramping up.
Did you see a meteorite either last night or early this morning?
I saw one streaking across the southern sky at 2:43 AM. It was spectacular.
Thanks for reading and have a good day.