Rain Likely Tonight, Some Thunder Possible.

Our chances of receiving some useful rainfall are looking better all the time as shown by the image on the right. This is an estimate of the QPF(qualitative precipitation forecast) which is suggesting as much as ½" of rain and perhaps locally more for this part of the state. There may even be some thunder by the time it all comes to an end during the day Monday.

The upper level system responsible for the rain is coming through a little more slowly than first thought which is allowing more moisture to work into it before it scoots on eastward. That also means our rain chances have been delayed somewhat with about a 30% chance during the day today and at least 60% for the overnight hours. Some lingering light rain or showers may well extend into the morning hours of Monday as well.

The northerly winds, mostly cloudy skies and chances of rain will also keep us cooler than normal with daytime highs in the 50s both today and Monday. If we clear out in time, temperatures Tuesday morning will be in the 30s with possibly some frost or a light freeze for many locations. After that, much warmer temperatures will quickly return with highs in the 60s Tuesday afternoon and well into the 70s by Wed and Thu. Increasing southerly winds will also bring back fire weather concerns by then.

Aloft, the zonal wind pattern, or a primarily west to east wind flow, usually means a warm, windy, stable pattern for us and that is what we will have for much of the coming week. Eventually, this pattern will break down and become more amplified. When that break down occurs and how amplified the flow becomes is always a forecast challenge as that will put us back into a much more unsettled weather pattern. Currently, it appears that the pattern will start to break down over the coming weekend and into the following week. If this is verified by later guidance, then that following week could be interesting.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot