Spring Like Weather Today

I can tell it's getting closer to spring.  Do you have allergies?  I have a whole host of allergies, including a ton of food allergies, but the tree pollen kicked into high gear yesterday and a lot of folks were starting to sniffle, including your friendly morning forecaster. I'm out of my maintenance medication and need to get on the ball quickly before it really starts to ramp up.  Hello Dr. Welch!  I'll be calling you soon! 

The weather continues to be mild and nice.  We managed to hit the 68 degree mark yesterday and should move back into the mid 70s today along with gusty south winds.  The fire danger issue is not going away.  We may have some relief Friday night into early Saturday with some shower and thunderstorm activity, but this will be just a drop in the bucket for what we need over the state.  Another storm system will be arriving by the Tuesday and Wednesday period of next week with a round of storms followed by colder air.  Until we see significant rainfall over a large area, the drought will continue to worsen and the fire danger issues will continue to get worse.  We may have temporary breaks where wind and humidity are not conducive to rapid fire weather growth, but the only big fix is a big rain. 

 The upper air pattern is trying to transition from a zonal flow to somewhat of an active flow aloft.  Next weeks system appears very strong in the model data suites, but the bulk of the energy may spread across the central and northern plains states.  Our surface winds Monday and Tuesday may be from 20 to near 40 mph from the south.  The air mass behind the Tuesday evening front will be cold with Wednesday possibly staying the 30s and 40s for the entire day! 

I thought it might be interesting to post some model output stats for the day so you can see what they look like. 

MOS FORECASTS

GFS MOS (MAV)

 KTUL   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    3/03/2011  0000 UTC                      

 DT /MAR   3            /MAR   4                /MAR   5          /  

 HR   06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00 

 X/N                    72          51          66          35    52 

 TMP  49 46 44 51 64 71 67 60 57 54 53 57 60 61 56 48 45 40 37 46 46 

 DPT  35 36 36 39 42 41 42 45 45 46 47 49 50 49 45 42 38 34 31 28 25 

 CLD  CL SC OV BK BK SC BK SC BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK CL 

 WDR  15 15 14 15 17 17 16 15 16 15 16 17 21 27 34 34 35 35 34 35 36 

 WSP  06 06 06 10 13 15 11 09 08 08 09 08 09 07 11 14 14 14 14 14 09 

 P06         0     0     0     0     5    12    31    46    22 10  3 

 P12                     1           6          34          46    13 

 Q06         0     0     0     0     0     0     0     1     0  0  0 

 Q12                     0           0           0           1     0 

 T06      0/ 8  0/ 5  1/ 5  3/12  3/ 9  3/ 6 11/ 7 25/12  4/ 2  1/13 

 T12            0/ 8        3/15        3/12       27/13     4/ 7    

 POZ   0  1  1  1  0  0  0  1  1  1  1  1  1  0  0  1  1  4  4  2  0 

 POS   0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  1  0  0  1  1  1  1  0  0  0  0  7  2 

 TYP   R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R 

 SNW                                 0                       0       

 CIG   8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  5  3  5  5  4  4  4  4  5  8  8 

 VIS   7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  6  5  5  7  7  6  7  7  7  7  7  7 

 OBV   N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N BR BR BR  N  N HZ  N  N  N  N  N  N 

NAM MOS (MET)

 KTUL   NAM MOS GUIDANCE    3/03/2011  0000 UTC                      

 DT /MAR   3            /MAR   4                /MAR   5          /  

 HR   06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00 

 X/N                    72          53          66          36    52 

 TMP  51 47 45 52 66 72 67 61 59 57 57 59 61 62 55 48 44 41 38 46 46 

 DPT  33 32 33 36 39 39 40 42 44 46 48 49 46 43 41 39 36 34 32 28 25 

 CLD  CL SC SC BK SC SC SC CL CL FW OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV FW 

 WDR  15 15 14 16 17 17 17 16 16 16 15 16 19 20 34 34 34 34 33 32 34 

 WSP  08 07 07 11 14 15 11 07 07 07 06 11 09 09 12 13 13 11 11 15 10 

 P06         1     2     2     2     3     6    34    34    10 10  6 

 P12                     3           4          34          38    14 

 Q06         0     0     0     0     0     0     1     1     0  0  0 

 Q12                     0           0           1           1     0 

 T06      0/10  1/ 6  1/11  1/ 9  2/ 8 10/ 3 20/19 19/17  5/ 6  2/ 6 

 T12            3/10        2/11       10/ 8       21/23     5/ 6    

 SNW                                 0                       0       

 CIG   8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  5  4  5  5  4  3  4  5  5  5  8 

 VIS   7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  6  7  7  5  5  6  7  7  7  7 

 OBV   N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N HZ  N  N BR BR  N  N  N  N  N 

 GFSX MOS (MEX)

 KTUL   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   3/03/2011  0000 UTC                       

 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      

 THU  03| FRI 04| SAT 05| SUN 06| MON 07| TUE 08| WED 09| THU 10 CLIMO

 X/N  72| 51  66| 35  52| 28  56| 38  61| 49  69| 39  52| 28  51 36 60

 TMP  67| 53  56| 37  46| 30  53| 41  59| 52  60| 42  46| 30  46      

 DPT  42| 47  45| 31  25| 24  25| 30  36| 42  38| 31  26| 22  21      

 CLD  PC| OV  OV| OV  PC| CL  CL| CL  OV| OV  PC| PC  OV| CL  CL      

 WND  15| 11  11| 14  16|  9  13| 11  21| 21  27| 18  15| 13  17      

 P12   1|  6  34| 46  13|  3   6| 10   9| 20  27| 29  34| 13  11 20 20

 P24    |     40|     50|      6|     19|     31|     37|     16    30

 Q12   0|  0   0|  1   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1    |             

 Q24    |      0|      1|      0|      0|      0|       |             

 T12   1|  3  14| 26   2|  3   2|  4   4| 11   9| 14   5|  7   7      

 T24    |  4    | 26    |  4    |  5    | 13    | 17    | 10          

 PZP   1|  2   1|  7   9|  1   0|  2   0|  2   0|  2   4|  4   2      

 PSN   0|  0   1|  0   0| 10  16|  0   5|  0   7|  3   2| 18  33      

 PRS   0|  1   1|  3  20|  7   0|  2   1|  1   2|  5  14| 18  12      

 TYP   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R      

 SNW    |      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |             

 These outputs give forecasters a quick glance at the output of the computer model.  The different columns indicate the different weather data.  The only data I look at from these sets are the temperature and dew point numbers, and occasionally the cloud conditions.  I would rather use the raw data from Buf kit files or even interpolate temperatures from the model output in the grids than use the mos numbers.  But the key is to understand when one should use the numbers and when one should ignore them all together.  The joys of forecasting the weather.  I don't know if it's important to you if we say the high will be 73 and it hits 78, but it drives us nuts.   I think most folks are more aware of a blown forecast when the trends and expectations are not met.  For example:  When warm and sunny weather is forecasted and cloudy and mild air occurs.  Or when there's a high chance of storms, but only a few form, and most of them are not in your area.  Would you like to see a confidence system used for forecasts?  A confidence number of 10 would indicate absolute confidence and a confidence number of 1 would indicate no confidence.  If you have any comments, fire away:  alan.crone@newson6.net

Enjoy the weather.