Expect a super great day with sunshine and highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Gusty south to southwest winds will dry the vegetation quickly and the fire danger will be increasing today, more so across western sections of the state.
A weak boundary will slide into the state tomorrow before stalling. This boundary will bring a wind shift to the northern half of the state and a few clouds.
The upper air flow will be zonal (weather speak for a west to east flow) for the next few days. This means no major storm systems will be moving into the area until the flow buckles. The flow will buckle or change around Friday and another system will move across the southern plains. Just like the last system, the instability factor will be low, but some thunderstorm activity will be likely during this period. Some cooler or even colder air will be possible on the back side of this system for Saturday, but the confidence for the Saturday period remains somewhat low at this point.
The GFS and EURO have been flipping quite a bit last week regarding this Friday and Saturday solution. The system in the GFS appears to be a rather fast moving and open system, meaning the like hood of any wrap around moisture will be slim. The EURO is slower and stronger, and is offering wrap around moisture and colder air. The 850 temp plots also would support some rain changing to snow across eastern OK. We're not ready to beat that drum at this point but its something to monitor in the data.
It's hard to imagine: spring is literally around the corner, and hopefully some much needed rainfall. The state remains in a drought with some locations greatly needing rain.
The severe weather season has already started with a few tornado reports Sunday across extreme northern OK and southern Kansas. It's always a good idea to have a safety plan in place before storms arrive. If you don't have a designated safe area in your home, take some time to locate the best place in your residence to seek shelter during tornado warnings, and make sure all family members understand where the safe places are located. It's also a good idea to have a flashlight and batteries ready for the season. Power outages can and do occur, even though they are typically less frequent and shorter lived compared to outages in the winter seasons due to ice.
Enjoy today. We'll be posting more regarding the weekend system later today.