Clouds are streaming back into the area this morning. A few passing showers will be possible today with highs in the lower 60s. South winds will be increasing from 15 to 25 mph as a strong storm system approaches the area later tonight and tomorrow.
The severe weather threat will be across east-central and southeastern OK Thursday. The Tulsa metro, at this hour, is still included the possibility of strong to severe storms Thursday, but will be located on the northeast fringe of the severe weather outlook.
The higher likelihood may end up southeast of Tulsa across east central and southeastern OK. A moderate risk of severe storms will be centered across central Arkansas for Thursday afternoon and evening.
The consensus of computer model data support the surface low developing to our southwest and moving across south central OK before lifting northeast into central Arkansas by Thursday evening. The EURO data is still more north with the surface low and therefore the quasi warm front that will move from north Texas into southern OK Thursday morning through midday.
The consensus of data will effectively keep a northeast or east surface wind across northern Ok including Tulsa Thursday while southeast surface winds will be likely across southern OK and north Texas. The higher likelihood for any severe storms would be near or south of the warm front, which currently would be southeast of Tulsa. The upper level part of this system is currently off the west coast and will not be sampled correctly until the next computer run. This means the solutions regarding the surface low and warm frontal position may change.
We have made some temperature and wind changes for Thursday based on this information.
The next system arriving Sunday into Monday appears to be a strong system, but low level moisture may not be in place before the system arrives. We'll keep a decent chance for this system at this point in the forecast cycle, but adjustments to this period seem possible.