Well, we did it again and this time by a wide margin. Yep, blew out the record warmest morning low for the second day in a row as we have so far only dropped to 64 degrees. The previous record was 55 set back in 1997. The record high for this date should be safe though as we expect to stay just below 80 this afternoon due to mostly cloudy skies lingering for much of the day.
However, the exceptionally warm temperatures together with strong S to SW winds of 15-30 and dormant vegetation will create a very high fire danger situation for today. Fortunately, the relative humidity will only drop into the 40% range with the daytime heating and that will mitigate the fire danger somewhat. However, for the extreme western counties, it will likely be even warmer and drier posing an even greater risk from wildfires.
A cold front is still scheduled to arrive during the overnight hours bringing sharply cooler conditions and a return to the real world. There is a very sharp temperature gradient associated with the boundary currently, but that should moderate as the colder air plunges southward. Even with some moderation, we will be some 30 degrees colder on Monday along with a brisk northerly wind. There will also be a chance of morning showers followed by clearing skies late in the day.
Another cold front and potential storm system will be arriving during the Thu-Fri time frame, but the longer range guidance continues to be at odds. The ensemble solutions are in better agreement than the operational runs so with that in mind, it appears that a strong storm system will be sweeping across the state during the day Thursday. The timing will make a huge difference in temperatures and right now it appears that it should arrive by early afternoon. Showers and potentially very strong storms will be possible with this particular system followed by a return to colder conditions again going into the weekend.
Yet another potentially wet system may pose a threat to the weekend and early that following week along with cooler conditions…..so, winter is not over yet.
As always, stay tuned and check back for updates.