Windy and warm weather likely today. A quick intrusion of cold air may arrive Monday.
A week ago we were dealing with the aftermath of another winter storm and extreme cold temperatures. Record lows were recorded last Thursday morning in many locations that will not be broken for 100 years or more! I can't imagine Nowata's -31 being surpassed anytime soon. At least I would hope not!
The upper air flow from the southwest will continue for the next few days meaning unseasonably warm air with highs today in the upper 70s. Morning clouds will thin out after the noon hour with gusty southwest winds from 15 to 25 mph. Despite last weeks snow and some residual ground moisture in some locations, the fire danger will be increasing today. The higher fire danger will remain west of the Tulsa metro, but the southwest wind will quickly dry the top layer of vegetation and we'll be right back in the "dry" category soon. The drought monitor continues to indicate severe to moderate drought for most of the state.
We'll see a weak boundary sliding southward Friday and this boundary will move back over the region Saturday as a warm front. A few showers may be possible Saturday, but slightly higher chances will occur Sunday evening into Monday morning across NE OK and SE Kansas as another system slides over the state. The dynamics with this Sunday system will be moderately strong, but most of the energy will be focused either north of our area, or to the east. The GFS and EURO had suggested the possibility of a dry slot moving across the area pushing the moisture to our east. This signal is not quite as prominent in today's data compared to a few days back. We have bounced around with the probability of precipitation for this period with a 50% pop reduced to a 30% chance. The 30% is the way to go for this time period at this point, but check back often for updates.
Here's the big news of the day: colder air will be possible Monday and Tuesday.
The EURO and GFS are both hinting at a shallow polar type boundary moving into the area Monday bringing a cool down through Tuesday. EURO is typically colder compared to the GFS, but even GFS numbers are suggesting highs in the 40s Monday. I'll adjust some numbers for this period much lower and see how the next few runs shake out.
The GFS would support some snow in central or southern Kansas Sunday evening into early Monday morning. We'll monitor this trend in the data even though this issue would be too far north to impact our area.
The long range data is also suggesting another sharp cold front around the end of Feb. Stay tuned.