As Alan mentioned in his excellent morning discussion, there are several systems that we are tracking and the one on Thursday continues to be by far the most interesting. We will get around to that one in a moment, but first things first.
The low overcast and clouds that we started with this morning will not get scoured out till later on Tuesday. A cold front is on schedule to arrive along about midnight tonight for locations near the I-44 corridor and a little later for locations further south. The low stratus and slight chances of rain will continue into the early morning of Tuesday but by afternoon our skies should be clearing from west to east. The slight chances of rain also leaves open a brief window of opportunity for some sleet or freezing drizzle during the early morning hours of Tuesday, but it would be very light if there is any at all.
Above normal temperatures today will be followed by below normal temperatures for the rest of the week, but at least we are not looking at a return to the deep freeze that we endured early last week. However, we are looking at a potential wintry event on Thursday and so far all the data that has come in this morning continues to support a wintry mix Wednesday night quickly changing over to all snow on Thursday.
There are still some details that will need to be worked out, but all current indications are that this will not be a major winter storm event. Forecast profiles of temperature and moisture suggest that moisture will be limited and so far I see no reason to change what we have been saying for several days now….which is on the order of 1-3" of snow during the day Thursday.
Clear or clearing skies on Friday will make for a very cold start followed by some moderation for the weekend. However, there are also indications of another wintry event coming our way by Sunday night or Monday. So, stay tuned and check back for updates.