Expert Says Phasing Down U.S. Forces Could Be Done Safely

Wednesday, August 15th 2007, 7:23 am

By: News On 6

WASHINGTON (AP) _ It would take 12 months or longer to safely withdraw all U.S. troops, contractors and equipment from Iraq and phase out U.S. bases there, says a leading analyst after extensive talks with U.S. commanders and diplomats and Iraqi leaders in Baghdad.

The U.S. military in Iraq would prefer a slower-paced, two-year pullout scenario, while outside experts say it ``would be feasible'' to extricate 10,000 troops and 10,000 contractors a month, says Anthony H. Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

These estimates do not mean the United States could not leave Iraq more quickly, said Cordesman, a former director of intelligence assessment at the Pentagon, in a weighty report bound to get serious congressional consideration.

The more equipment and facilities the U.S. and Iraqi forces abandon and destroy, the swifter the exodus, Cordesman said. ``Under these conditions, the U.S. could rush out in as little as a few weeks and no more than a few months,'' he said.

While Cordesman has not endorsed any particular plan, he has urged policymakers to look realistically at the options.

At the same time, Cordesman said phasing down U.S. forces in Iraq was no guarantee casualties would decline unless those who remained were not left in forward bases where they could be targeted easily.

With Democrats and some Republicans pressing for an orderly partial withdrawal, Cordesman said it was absurd to suppose the U.S. could stand aside and count on air power and special forces to deal with al-Qaida and other terror groups.

``Reducing troop levels does not reduce risk or casualties unless it is conducted as part of a military plan,'' he wrote in a report issued by the think tank based partly on talks he held in Iraq two weeks ago.

U.S. officials there made it clear, Cordesman wrote, that they were preparing to advise Congress they were examining options for phasing down U.S. forces, which now total about 162,000. At the same time, he said, the officials are recommending that the U.S. commitment to Iraq be extended through military spending well into the next administration _ but with much lower troop levels and budgets.

Agreeing with the Bush administration, Cordesman said a case can be made that ``strategic patience'' through at least early next year may make a working plan possible, but he emphasized it would be wrong to focus on terrorists and ignore the country's political and economic situation.

U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker and U.S. commander Gen. David Petraeus are expected to begin critical congressional testimony the week of Sept. 10.

Threaded throughout Cordesman's report is an inclination to credit their judgment above that of administration policymakers in Washington.

Overall, and with Washington his apparent target, Cordesman said, ``Half-truths and spin in the past have built up a valid distrust of virtually anything the administration says about Iraq.''

And yet, the former Pentagon official said, ``military progress is taking place.''

Cordesman urged broadening the national debate to include options between the extremes of either ``staying the course or rushing out with little regard for the consequences.''

However, he called Iraq a gamble and said, ``The mistakes and blunders that have dominated U.S. policy ... have interacted with Iraqi failures to make any continued U.S. effort one filled with serious risks.''