Term limits, open seats combine for historic election

Monday, June 14th 2004, 5:45 am

By: News On 6

OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) -- Two words that are music to the ears of any political hopeful are "open seat," and with term limits taking effect in Oklahoma this year, there are 51 such seats in the Oklahoma Legislature.

There are 15 open seats in the Senate, nine previously held by Democrats and six by Republicans. In the House, 24 Democrat-held seats and 12 controlled by Republicans are open. Most of the open seats are due to term limits, although some are the result of legislators resigning or seeking other office.

With Democrats currently holding a, 52-48 majority in the House, with one vacant seat, Republicans are hoping to capitalize on the open seats and wrest control of the House for the first time since 1921.

"The impact of term limits is historic for the amount of open seats we're going to have, and the best chance for your party to make gains is in open-seat contests," said Chad Alexander, a GOP political consultant and former head of the Oklahoma Republican Party. "Both parties have had this year circled on their calendar since term limits were passed."

Most of the open seats are in districts that will likely stay in the hands of the political party currently in control. However, a handful of districts in which voter registration has shifted over the years are on the radar for the opposing party.

Three Democrat-held, open House districts Republicans are clearly targeting are District 55, currently held by Rep. Jack Bonny, D-Burns Flat; District 56, held by Rep. Ron Langmacher, D-Carnegie; and District 59, held by Rep. Clay Pope, D-Loyal.

"The House is a toss-up right now," said University of Oklahoma political science professor Keith Gaddie. "But if I'm watching districts, I'm watching 55, 56 and 59 on the Democrat side. Pope's district is gone. I don't see how they (Democrats) can hold it."

Other Democrat-held seats Republicans feel they can capture include District 30 in northeast Oklahoma, held by term-limited Rep. Michael Tyler, D-Sapulpa, and District 71 in Tulsa, held by first-term lawmaker Rep. Roy McClain.

"I would say there are anywhere from three to five open Democrat seats that are legitimately in play, where there may be only one or two open Republican seats in play," said Democratic political consultant Sean Mossman. "But the Democratic Party's ace in the hole, quite frankly, is that there are four or five very vulnerable Republican incumbents thanks to some of their recent votes on education and the horse racing industry."

Mossman said the open District 35 seat in north-central Oklahoma, currently held by Rep. Larry Ferguson, R-Cleveland, is a target of the Democrats. Seats held by Republican incumbents that will face strong Democratic opposition include Tulsa's District 23, held by Rep. Sue Tibbs, R-Tulsa; District 9 in Rogers County, held by Rep. Tad Jones, R-Claremore; and District 13 in northeast Oklahoma, held by Rep. Stuart Ericson, R-Muskogee.

Oklahoma Democratic Party Chairman Jay Parmley said the leadership in the House has worked hard to recruit good challengers for some open Republican seats and "what we consider vulnerable Republican incumbent seats."

Parmley acknowledged that some open Republican seats are simply not realistic targets for the Democrats.

"We're not going out there to waste money," Parmley said. "We're trying to win races."

Republican strategists are also optimistic the GOP can make some gains in the state Senate, where Democrats currently hold a 28-20 advantage. However, most analysts predict a Republican takeover in the Senate will be nearly impossible.

"Democrats will hold the Senate," Gaddie said. "There's something weird about the way Oklahoma is designed so that the Democrats can't lose the Senate."

Alexander acknowledged that taking the Senate will be a difficult challenge for Republicans, but said a GOP takeover of the House, combined with some gains in the Senate, will make for a historic year in Oklahoma politics.

"Most Oklahomans weren't alive the last time a Republican was the Speaker of the House (1921)," Alexander said. "If we can neutralize the Senate and take the House, it certainly changes the political dynamics in Oklahoma."