Future of Iraq's Kurdish north still at risk despite U.S. protection and weakening of Iraq's grip

IRBIL, Iraq (AP) _ Despite carving out a relatively prosperous, liberal enclave in Iraq's far north, many Kurds believe their self-rule experiment will die if America does not oust Iraqi President

Friday, November 29th 2002, 12:00 am

By: News On 6

IRBIL, Iraq (AP) _ Despite carving out a relatively prosperous, liberal enclave in Iraq's far north, many Kurds believe their self-rule experiment will die if America does not oust Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

While President Bush has persisted in threats to attack Iraq unless it fully cooperates with U.N. arms inspectors, some Kurds worry that the international, and American, stance has subtly shifted from eliminating Saddam's regime to simply eliminating its lethal arms.

``Some say if he disarms, he will still be in power,'' said Fowzi Hariri, a top official of the Kurdish Democratic Party. ``What happens to us? Are we expected to continue to revolt? Or are we expected to live together with him?''

In the years since the 1991 Gulf War and creation of the U.S.-Britain no-fly zone that helped establish an autonomous Kurdish enclave, the region's 3.7 million Kurds have achieved much.

Kurdish schools have been built, roads fixed and cultural institutions established in a bid to develop a Kurdish identity in the region.

With help from the United Nations and the Iraqi oil-for-food program, Kurdish authorities have rebuilt from scratch many villages wiped out by Saddam's forces during his three decades of rule.

They have also laid aside political differences and achieved peace between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and its one-time rival, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.

But a range of pressures _ including Saddam's continuing rule and economic problems _ have many Kurds fearful of the future. They are also worried about the role of neighboring Iran, Syria and Turkey, which oppose autonomy for Iraqi Kurds since it could feed the nationalist desires of their own Kurdish minorities.

Without a change in the Iraqi government, officials privately acknowledge that ``Kurdistan'' _ which encompasses three of Iraq's 18 provinces and 3.7 million of its 22 million people _ will remain an isolated backwater surrounded by distrustful neighbors.

One Kurdistan Democratic Party official said Kurdish forces would be crushed if they tried to attack Saddam outside a U.S.-led war. He said the situation was at a political dead end as well, since the Kurds were in no position to negotiate their future with Baghdad.

Kurdish-controlled Iraq has no internationally recognized status. It cannot issue passports to its citizens nor grant visas to visitors. It has no airport and visitors come and go by motor vehicle.

The transportation issue is particularly vexing as many guests invited to the Kurds' Oct. 4 parliament reconvening were unable to attend because they could not gain permission to enter northern Iraq across the Turkish, Iranian or Syrian borders.

The isolation and lack of opportunities in Iraq's Kurdish region are convincing many of its brightest young people to emigrate. Its leaders avoid nationalistic or civic gestures, wary of how Turkey, Iran or Syria would react if they were to make moves such as issuing Kurdistan license plates.

The region remains financially dependent on the U.N.'s oil-for-food program, under which Iraqi petroleum is sold and its revenues spent on humanitarian projects. But expenditures under the program must be approved by Baghdad.

Since its 1991 separation from Iraq and the 1998 end to the civil war between the Democratic Party and Patriotic Union, a nascent private sector has developed. Mobile phone services, Internet providers, building contractors and light industry have sprouted up.

But the economy has slowed down because of a shortage of currency. Kurds still use the pre-1991 Iraqi dinar, not the Baghdad-issued dinar emblazoned with Saddam's face. Apparently, Iraqi, Turkish and Iranian speculators have been hoarding the pre-1991 dinars in hopes they'll make a killing on them should the U.S. remove Saddam.

As many Kurds are paid in U.S. dollars by international agencies, they have to use more dollars to buy goods. Those items are priced in old dinars, making them more expensive.

``If we could just print new money, we could get rid of this problem,'' said Adeham Karim Darvish, director of the Kurdistan Regional Bank, housed in an ultramodern, marble-tiled tower built a year ago.

``But because the (Kurdish) government is not the government, we can't do anything about it,'' he said.