Worried about toy shortages, parents plot their holiday shopping strategies

NEW YORK (AP) _ The annual scramble for the holiday season's hottest toys could be especially ugly this year because of labor trouble on the West Coast docks. <br><br>The 10-day shutdown and its aftermath

Tuesday, October 29th 2002, 12:00 am

By: News On 6

NEW YORK (AP) _ The annual scramble for the holiday season's hottest toys could be especially ugly this year because of labor trouble on the West Coast docks.

The 10-day shutdown and its aftermath have raised the possibility of merchandise shortages this Christmas season, particularly in the toy industry, which gets most of its products from Asia and relies on suppliers to deliver on short notice.

Given the backlog of goods on the docks, industry analysts believe some shipments might not arrive in stores until right before the Thanksgiving weekend.

Many stores that have already received shipments are worried they will not have time to reorder toys that prove to be surprise hits.

That could end up disappointing children _ and toy retailers, whose holiday season accounts for 50 percent of their annual sales.

``Now there's an added wrinkle to the chase,'' said David Novitsky, vice president and divisional merchandising manager at KB Toys Inc.

Mattel's Barbie as Rapunzel, which reached stores in September, is expected to be this year's hottest toy overall, according to PlayDate Inc., an independent marketing services company that surveyed 25 retailers.

Stores have also reported that anything connected with Yu-Gi-Oh! a Japanese game introduced in the United States in March, has become a big hit.

Also popular are MGA Entertainment's new collection of Bratz dolls called Funk 'N' Glow, and Toy Biz's Dual Action Web Blaster, tied to the ``Spider-Man'' movie.

LeapFrog's Learning System, which was launched in 1999 and continues to add software, should also be among the top 10 toys this season, according to PlayDate.

While there's no new video game console on the market, software makers have a number of new games. Rockstar Games' ``Grand Theft Auto: Vice City'' and Electronic Arts' ``Bond 007: Nightfire,'' are ones to watch, according to Sean McGowen, co-founder of PlayDate, and toy analyst at Gerard Klauer Mattison.

Most video game software makers produce the games domestically, so they are not expected to be affected by the West Coast port shutdown.

Tom Conley, president of the Toy Industry Association, acknowledged big challenges ahead for the industry, particularly because of the expected shortages. But he said he is also worried that parents will feel too financially strapped to splurge on toys.

Marie Carre of New York said that given worries about her own job security, she will spend less on her 11-year-old daughter, Lisa. Carre has been unable to find permanent work, and does stints as an administrative assistant.

Carre said she will spend about $200 on her child this year, compared with more than $300 last year.

``Kids expect there will be a reward for Christmas, but the tree won't be filled up this year,'' she said.