Terrorists Said Major U.S. Threat

Monday, December 18th 2000, 12:00 am

By: News On 6

WASHINGTON (AP) â€” The main threats to U.S. territory over the coming 15 years will likely come from terrorists and other adversaries using low-tech tools of war, according to a sweeping new study by intelligence analysts and non-goverment experts.

This threat is made more worrisome by a trend toward increasing collusion among terrorists, drug traffickers, weapons proliferators and organized crime, according to the assessment ``Global Trends 2015,'' published Monday.

``Most adversaries will recognize the information advantage and military superiority of the United States in 2015,'' the report said. ``Rather than acquiesce to any potential U.S. military domination, they will try to circumvent or minimize U.S. strengths and exploit perceived weaknesses.''

The most recent example of this approach was the terrorist bombing of the USS Cole on Oct. 12 as it refueled in Aden, Yemen. A small boat maneuvered alongside the huge destroyer and, without drawing attention from the ship's security forces, detonated explosives that tore a hole in the ship and killed 17 sailors.

Monday's report said this kind of approach â€” known as ``asymmetric warfare'' â€” will threaten U.S. interests not only abroad but also at home.

``Such asymmetric approaches â€” whether undertaken by states or nonstate actors â€” will become the dominant characteristic of most threats to the U.S. homeland,'' the report said. This will become the ``defining challenge'' of U.S. national security strategy and military force development in coming years.

High-tech threats also will loom large, the report said.

``Advances in science and technology will pose national security challenges of uncertain character and scale,'' it said. ``Increasing reliance on computer networks is making critical U.S. infrastructures more attractive as targets. Computer network operations today offer new options for attacking the United States within its traditional continental sanctuary, potentially anonymously and with selective effects.''

Highlights of the study were first reported in Monday's editions of the New York Times and Washington Post. The Times said copies of the report were given last week to President-elect Bush's team.

The assessment also looked at global economic, political, and resource trends.

It predicted that Russia would continue to face problems. It will be ``challenged even more than today to adjust its expectations for world leadership to its dramatically reduced resources.'' The report concluded that the most likely outcome is that Russia will remain internally weak through 2015.

The experts had a mixed view of China. ``Working against China's aspirations to sustain economic growth while preserving its political system is an array of political, social, and economic pressures that will increasingly challenge the regime's legitimacy, and perhaps its survival,'' they concluded. On the other hand, China may introduce enough political reform to adapt to domestic pressure for change.

The report was 15 months in the making and was directed by the National Intelligence Council, a group of intelligence officials representing all elements of the U.S. national security establishment, including the Central Intelligence Agency, the Defense Intelligence Agency and the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research. Also contributing were experts from private think tanks and academic institutions.