Summer-Like Temperatures, Storms Possible Friday For Northeastern Oklahoma

We're in a holding pattern this morning with mild, dry and warm weather underway.  Showers and storms developed overnight north of the state line and quickly expanded to the northeast, away from our region.  These should remain well north of the state line and will continue moving generally away from the region for the morning hours.  A strong upper level system to our west will move near the state later tonight with a chance of showers or storms developing near the area.  A layer of warm air aloft (the CAP) may continue to suppress thunderstorm activity or keep any afternoon showers or storms elevated, but severe parameters may increase slightly later tonight that may allow for a few strong to severe storms.  Most of the hi-resolution models bring a few elevated storms across the area this afternoon with only a small chance later tonight, but I will continue to keep a chance of storms respecting the severe weather potential for overnight.  You should also remain aware that a small chance would exist for a tornado if a storm could develop and become rooted into the boundary layer, more so across far northern OK into southern Kansas.  Again, the overall risk is very low, but not zero.   The system has slowed down in some of the data and we may have a few elevated and non-severe showers and storms along highway 69 eastward Saturday morning for an hour or so before quickly exiting the state.  I still think most, if not all our weekend will be fine from a weather standpoint.

A few storms, elevated in nature, may develop by midday to afternoon across eastern OK, but the threat for any surface-based storms this afternoon appears unlikely due to the presence of the anticipated cap.  This cap may also inhibit any development this afternoon.  Later tonight as stronger upper forcing approaches the plains, additional storms may develop in the vicinity of the quasi triple point across far north central OK and southcentral Kansas.  Locations slightly east of I-35 along the state line northward into Kansas may have a small window for some surface-based storms.  Any of these storms could be severe with all modes possible, but the chances will remain low. 

A cold front eventually catches the dryline and passes the eastern Ok region early Saturday morning taking the chance for showers quickly out of the state.  Our next system will arrive Monday with rain and storms likely by afternoon and evening.  The current positioning of some important features continues to keep most of the severe weather threats across far southeastern OK and northeastern Texas.   

WARN Radar

Later next week, the data has flipped significantly and there are wide differences in the data.  Some global runs indicate southwest flow later in the week, while others present a northwest flow.  This would bring big differences ranging from highs in the 70s Thursday with storms to possible highs in the 40s and 50s with dry air.  We’ll cross this bridge early next week. 

We did hit our projections by a few degrees yesterday with afternoon highs reaching 94 at Tulsa International surpassing the 102-year-old record of 87 from 1918.  Highs today will also be more summerlike, but not as warm as yesterday, with highs reaching the lower to mid-80s across most of eastern OK.   Saturdays highs should reach the upper 60s and lower 70s with decreasing clouds with sunshine Sunday and highs in the lower 70s. 

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog, 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone