Cooler Weather Arrives For Green Country

We’re looking at cooler weather today and tomorrow compared to the past few days and even colder weather Sunday afternoon and evening setting the stage for the return of winter-like temps next week.  A strong upper level system will precede this major cold front and bring some rain and thunder chances into part of eastern OK, mostly Saturday night into Sunday morning to midday.  This system is quite robust, but the current trajectory and surface reflections may keep most, if not all of the severe weather threats slightly south or southeast of our immediate areas of concern Saturday, but could bring some strong to severe threats northward by Sunday morning to midday across far southeastern OK.  Temperatures this morning will start in the upper 40s and lower 50s with highs reaching the mid to upper 60s north and lower 70s south.  As posted yesterday, both today and Friday have potential to be very pleasant weather days across the area before active weather arrives this weekend, despite some cloud cover across the area today. Friday morning starts with some locations in the lower to mid-30s as a surface ridge of high pressure will remain across NE OK before moving eastward by afternoon with south winds returning and highs reaching the lower 60s.  A few valleys early tomorrow morning may briefly hit the freezing mark. 

Our main system of interest continues to be the strong southern stream cut-off low positioned near or slightly southwest of Los Angeles this morning.  It’s made very slow progress eastward during the last 24 hours but should eventually get a shove eastward Friday.  To the north, a broad trough in the northern stream will eventually drop southward later this weekend bringing much colder air back into a large portion of the country.   At the surface, south winds return Friday afternoon and Saturday with low level moisture returning from the Gulf into central Texas by Friday night and into north Texas Saturday morning.  Some of this moisture also makes part of eastern OK early Saturday with a slight chance of a shower or two.  Saturday afternoon, the main upper level system will be approaching west Texas with storms attempting to develop through the day across the Lone Star state.   Some of these will be severe.

Saturday night into Sunday morning the main upper level system will begin to slightly open and may be positioned across the Red River Valley northward as it moves eastward into western Arkansas by Sunday evening.  A surface low pressure area will also be somewhere across the state of Oklahoma and will also move from west to east early Sunday to midday.  It’s impossible with any confidence to locate the exact position of this feature, and the position holds the key to where strong to near severe storms may develop Sunday before a very strong cold front powerhouses across the region by early afternoon.  As of this morning, I continue to think most severe weather threats Sunday will remain across extreme southeastern or far eastern OK into Arkansas before advancing across a large portion of the southeastern U.S.   The airmass ahead of this feature will remain moist and warm, possibly supporting temps reaching the upper 60s or even lower 70s Sunday by noon before strong north winds and falling temperatures approach by afternoon and evening.  The basic take-away for Sunday will be a chance for a few storms followed by colder conditions into the afternoon and evening.   

Sunday night into Monday morning some locations could be in the mid-30s and others in the lower 40s with Monday afternoon highs staying in the upper 40s with north winds and mostly cloudy conditions.  Tuesday morning a fast disturbance may brush western OK with a chance for some light showers.  The higher chances will remain to our west, but we’ll have low probabilities in the forecast.   The air aloft would be cold enough for snow, but the surface currently supports only light rain showers.  Another stout looking boundary should arrive Wednesday and reinforce the dry and chilly weather for the remainder of the week.  Later next week, another strong looking upper system will approach from the west with a minor warm-up Friday into Saturday, including the chance for a few storms.  Once again, as this system passes the state, most data projects another significant cooldown for the following week. 

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone