Chance For Flooding Remains High As Storms Continue

Strong storms remain across part of southeastern Oklahoma early this morning along with pockets of heavy rainfall.

While the severe weather threats will diminish during the early morning hours, the flooding potential will remain. The main driver of this pattern will not clear the region until either Wednesday late or Thursday morning. This means we'll keep rain and thunderstorm chances in the forecast for the next few days, including some threats for strong to severe storms and flooding rains. A flash flood watch is posted for the southern sections of the state and additional counties may be added later today or tonight. Numerous flood warnings are underway this morning across southeastern Oklahoma. Temperatures will stay in the upper 70s and lower 80s today and Wednesday before slowly increasing into the mid-80s through the end of the week.

Heat index values will reach the lower to mid-90s this afternoon with a tropical atmosphere over the region. The weekend currently appears dry and mild with another strong front nearing the state next week. On the first day of meteorological fall, we're seeing signals of a pattern change that could bring a very real taste of fall weather to a large portion of the nation next week. The upper air pattern supports a strong upper trough dropping southward out of the Pacific Northwest and into the central Rockies. This feature may attempt to briefly develop a cut-off low or elongated trough at the base that would influence the state for the next few days. A cold front will be stalling across part of the state this morning and may slowly migrate northward later this afternoon or evening.

These features will keep the mention for precipitation across the region today and Wednesday before slowly pushing most of the rain southward as the boundary makes another jog southward Wednesday into Thursday. The threat for severe weather is relatively low but precipitable water values remain high. This will lead to efficient rainfall producers that may support heavy rainfall and flooding in some locations.

By Thursday most of the activity should either be slightly south or east of the metro with improving conditions for Tulsa, but some rain may continue across southern sections during the day. Friday and Saturday currently appear mostly pleasant. Lower humidity will be possible Friday with north winds and highs in the mid-80s. Saturday south winds will return along with increasing moisture and highs in the upper 80s near 90. Sunday night into Monday, the first signal for a front appears and I will keep a mention for a few storms along this initial boundary.

The data next week supports a pattern change bringing a real-deal taste of fall weather across the central and eastern sections of the nation, including a strong front bringing fall temps across Oklahoma either Monday or Tuesday. There will be a threat of storms with this system, but the potential for highs in the 70s will reside behind the frontal passage.Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone