Muggy Weather Returns To Northeast Oklahoma Midweek

Patterns look good in the short term but will quickly change and bringing humid conditions back to the state by the middle to end of the week along with a few showers or storms Wednesday and increasing thunderstorm chances for part of the weekend.

Highs Monday afternoon will reach the upper 80s with mostly sunny skies and light winds from the southeast at 5 to 12 mph. Dew points should remain mostly in the lower 60s Monday afternoon with another pleasant day for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

Tuesday into Wednesday, a mid-level ridge of high pressure across the western U.S. will increase as the first short-wave disturbance rounds the top of this ridge dropping across the central plains Wednesday into Thursday. This will bring a few scattered showers or storms to part of Eastern OK, but the coverage should remain low. This means our probability will remain around 20 to 30% for Wednesday into early Thursday. A second and stronger system should near the state this weekend with increasing chances for rain and thunder.

Friday into the weekend, the ridge remains to our west while another unseasonably strong mid-level low develops across the northern plains while traveling into the Midwest or even upper Missouri Valley by Saturday night or Sunday. A surface cold front is expected to develop across the central plains in response to this system and move southeast, nearing northern OK Saturday evening with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances, including the mentions for a few strong to near severe storms and some heavy rainfall threats. It is a little unusual for a front to clear the entire state this time of the year, but the forcing in the GFS data would be strong enough to push the boundary into at least southern OK Sunday morning while the EURO is slightly weaker and a little more northeast with the main trough.

These data would stall the front or have it becoming diffuse Sunday across northern sections with a return to southerly winds Sunday afternoon into Monday. I’ll keep a decent pop for the weekend and favor the EURO positioning of the boundary for Sunday.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!