Warmer Weather Returns This Weekend


Wednesday, October 20th 2021, 6:04 am
By: Alan Crone


TULSA, Oklahoma -

A weak front is entering the area Wednesday morning and will move into southeastern OK by afternoon and early evening before stalling south of the Red River.

This boundary will slowly lift northward as a warm front Friday into the weekend bringing a few chances for scattered storms near and north of the boundary before moving into southern Kansas Sunday morning to midday. South winds and warmer weather return this weekend with potentially near record highs Monday before another strong storm system arrives with increasing chances for storms by the middle of next week.

Moisture is limited across our immediate area of northeastern OK. Capping issues will also prevent any significant chance for showers and storms this morning to midday, but I'll keep a low possibility just in case something strange happens. As the front enters southeastern OK this afternoon, a few scattered storms will attempt to fire up, but these also will be short-lived. The best chance will be near highway 270 south. Northwest winds and highs reaching the mid to upper 70s will remain today with a sunshine-cloud mix. Later this evening, temps will drop as drier and cooler air temporarily fills into the state with Thursday morning lows reaching the 40s and afternoon highs nearing the upper 60s to lower 70s Thursday afternoon. 

Later Thursday evening, the front located south of the Red River begins its slow journey lifting northwest as a warm front due to pressure falls along the Rockies as the next upper-level system slowly draws near the mountains. This front will be the focus for a few scattered storms late Thursday evening into early Friday morning, mostly well southwest of the immediate area. The primary threats would be hail and gusty winds. By Friday afternoon and evening, this front will be near or along the highway 412 corridor region and continuing to slowly lift north with another window for a few storms late Friday into pre-dawn Saturday. Again, a few of these could be strong, but the expected coverage of storms will remain low. Saturday morning to midday, this front should be moving into southeastern Kansas with most of the storm chances exiting the state. We may have one more small window Sunday evening into early Monday as the front could waffle slightly southeast before moving out of the region.

Early next week features unseasonably warm and windy weather. We'll be close to reaching the upper 80s Monday with southwest winds nearing 25 to 40 mph. By Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, another strong upper trough nears the central plains with very strong winds aloft moving across the area. The signal and pattern recognition supports a mention of severe weather, but the exact timing may mitigate this some. We'll have more specifics on the timing and threats as we draw closer to the event. 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.