Grab the jacket this morning! Clear sky and dry air have teamed up to produce some temps in the 40s across northern Oklahoma. A few lingering clouds across southeastern Oklahoma will keep the morning lows in the lower to mid-50s in these areas. I’m anticipating a 5-Star weather day across northeastern Oklahoma with sunshine and highs in the mid-70s. The winds will remain light this morning and increasing slightly from the south by midday to afternoon. If you’re heading to the Tulsa State Fair, you couldn’t have picked a better weather day. Our roller-coaster ride will continue for the next few days, but the overall trend will support a gradual warming trend into next week. Rain and storm chances, other than a few isolated showers or storms, will also remain very low until late next week. There may be a few showers that can sneak in behind a shallow cold front late Friday night or Saturday morning along and northwest of I-44 but the chances will also remain low.
A surface ridge of high pressure will be the dominate feature today allowing for the wonderful fall conditions across the state. Later tonight the ridge will move eastward, and south winds will quickly bring some slightly warmer weather back to the state with Friday morning lows in the 50s and highs in the upper 70s north and lower 80s south. A shallow cold front will enter northwestern Oklahoma Friday midday to afternoon and move southward before stalling near the Highway 412 corridor by evening. Any showers or storms will more than likely remain to the north of this boundary and would be positioned across far northwestern Oklahoma into southern Kansas Friday evening through Saturday morning. If the boundary moves more southward than anticipated, it could bring a few showers or sprinkles near the metro late Friday night into pre-dawn Saturday.
A fast-moving shortwave in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will eject into the plains and will allow a surface low to develop across the Lee of the Rockies this weekend. This will quickly bring the front northward out of northern Oklahoma into the central plains Saturday effectively allowing the warmer and humid weather to surge northward through the plains into the weekend. Only the RAW NAM keeps the shallow boundary positioned to our northwest Saturday. If this occurs, we’ll have a broad range of temperatures across this short space with the metro around 82 and Osage County only near 60. We’re counting on this boundary to lift northward during the day. This means temperatures will gradually warm from this weekend into next week with very little influence across the state from any significant storm system. As the moisture becomes deeper in the southeastern part of the state, a few afternoon shower or storms will be possible in these areas Monday through Wednesday. We’re not anticipating these to impact the metro.
Later next week a strong upper level system will develop across the western U.S. and bring active weather into the plains. This may be as soon as next Wednesday or more than likely not until later next week into the weekend. The consensus data support a front nearing the state by next Friday.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.