A flash flood watch will be underway for a large portion of Oklahoma, including the Tulsa metro southward through part of the weekend. Rain and storm activity will be likely and may produce amounts from 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts in the watch area. Highs today will top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s, but these readings will be more likely by midday with temperatures falling into the lower 70s to upper 60s by this afternoon.
Severe weather threats, other than flooding, are not expected with this system. Another front will arrive Tuesday with a chance for storms followed by at least one or possibly two other fronts into next weekend with cooler fall-like air and some rain chances.
The surface front is located slightly north of the metro as I post this morning and should move southward by early morning to midday. Rain and storm activity is likely to develop along and behind the boundary and southward in the moisture across southern Oklahoma. This should eventually envelop most of the area by midday to afternoon with pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall possible in some locations. The upper air flow will parallel the surface boundary causing this front to stall or at least slow greatly to the south of the Tulsa area. Locations along and behind the boundary may see heavy rainfall late tonight through Saturday morning before moving out of the area by Saturday morning to midday. Moisture from the old Pacific tropical depression 19E will be funneled across the state and will combine with gulf moisture already in place to produce the heavy rainfall threat.
The timing will remain slightly tricky with different stop and start times in some data, but we think our general trend is secure with midday to evening supporting a likely category for almost all locations from the metro southward. Locations across southern Kansas and extreme northern Oklahoma by see some rain ending by later this afternoon or evening while locations southward will keep the chance during the pre-dawn hours of Saturday.
Saturday midday the bulk of the precip will be moving eastward but there will remain enough lift nearby to keep the chances for additional rain across at least southern Oklahoma Saturday evening through Sunday morning. Therefore, our flood watch technically extends into Sunday morning across eastern Oklahoma while the central Oklahoma flood watch will expire Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures will be moving into the lower 70s or even a few upper 60s with rain cooled air boundaries late today into the evening hours. Official highs will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s. We typically invert these readings during the winter months to communicate the cooler readings for the afternoon and evening. But since this is late Summer and early Fall, we’re keeping the 76 on the forecast map for today’s highs. Temps Saturday will stay in the upper 60s to lower 70s for highs and should move into the upper 70s Sunday afternoon.
Monday into Tuesday readings should rebound into the 80s before the next stronger front quickly moves across the plains into the state by Tuesday afternoon with a chance of storms. The data has flipped greatly concerning the 2nd half of next week and now offers at least two more boundaries with rain and storm chances. We’ll be investigating the data in more detail later today and this weekend regarding later next week
In summary, take the rain gear today. Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.