A few showers and storms will approach northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas this morning before gradually dissipating. An outflow boundary and cold front will near the region later today with increasing thunderstorm chances for some locations. The upper air pattern will remain favorable for additional chances for the next few days before focusing mostly across southern Oklahoma and north Texas by the end of the week. Severe weather threats later today and this evening will remain relatively low with damaging down burst of winds in a few storms. Highs this afternoon will range from 89 in southeastern Kansas to 98 in southeastern Oklahoma. The metro will top near 94 to 97 with a heat index value around 100.
The mid-level ridge is centered well west of the area with a broad northwest flow from the southwestern Canada into the Rockies and across the southern plains. This flow will be favorable for bringing storm chances into the area for the next few days and keeping the highs eventually below the seasonal averages Wednesday through the end of the week and possibly into the weekend.
The front will approach the metro early this afternoon with scattered storms developing around 2 p.m. to 4 p.m. The storms will move southeast and could produce pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall along with the low chance for a few strong to severe storms in the hot and humid atmosphere. The boundary will be positioned to our south Wednesday morning with the chance for some additional showers and storms arriving from the northwest during the early morning hours. Thursday into Friday most of the activity will remain to our south across the Red River but we could experience some precip near the metro. There will be a slight chance for a few showers or storms this weekend, but the odds will remain low until Sunday night into Monday when another mid-level feature may be very close to the region.
The mid-level ridge of high pressure will be near central Nevada this weekend with an elongated trough extending from the upper Midwest into the eastern Missouri Valley. At the base of this trough, a new mid-level low may attempt to develop over west Texas Saturday and begin lifting northward Sunday into Monday. There will be active weather with this feature including the threat of a few strong to severe storms but the main impacts could be well west of the eastern Oklahoma region late Sunday into Monday. Our forecast will keep low probabilities.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.