Stormy Pattern Returns, So Will The Heat

While summer officially begins this Thursday at 5:06am, our summer season has already been off to a running start. June 2018 is the 7th hottest June on record so far and the rain has cut off for extended periods of time. However, the next several days offer both cooler air and beneficial rain to help offset our nearly 6” rainfall deficit so far this year.

Here’s what’s happening. Tropical moisture continues to surge north from the Gulf of Mexico while a potent storm system slides east from the Rockies. The combination will create widespread showers and storms on Wednesday, a few of which could reach severe limits due to high winds and hail. A frontal boundary will be the main focus for strong storm development by late afternoon across northeast Oklahoma. Rain chances will drop off late Wednesday night as the front shoves any storms into southeast Oklahoma and Arkansas. Below is a timeline of rain and storm chances for the day to come.

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Clouds and potential rain will keep temperatures at or below normal Wednesday. On Thursday and Friday, we’ll enjoy a slightly cooler air mass sliding in from the north. Enjoy the refreshment! Daytime highs will be in the 80s with overnight lows dipping below 70° from mid to late week.

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As the heat dome and ridge in the jet stream try to slide back eastward, it will likely bring about more active weather just in time for the weekend. In the summer, the periphery of the heat ridge is often known as the “Ring of fire.” In this case, it’s not referring to volcanic activity or a Johnny Cash song, but to a storm track that can light up the skies with lightning. Several complexes of storms may form to our northwest, feed on the energy from beneath the heat dome and slide southeastward toward Green Country with high winds and prolific rainfall. The first round may come Friday night with repeated rounds later in the weekend and possibly early next week. Above is the set-up for such weather. If that heat ridge grows a bit stronger, it may keep most of the storms just northeast of the area. However, it appears we’ll be in that favorable storm track for a least a stretch of time before the heat wins out. The good news for this unsettled pattern is the rainfall. Below is a model depiction of how much could fall between now and early next week. This would really curtail our growing drought assuming it comes to fruition.

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Following the wet spell, heat index values are likely to soar again due to the added moisture. Next week will be hot and humid and it appears June will close out with those kind of conditions. It’s possible we could still maintain a “Top 10 Hottest June” status as we close out the month. In fact, the heat is likely to take over and be our main weather issue all the way to nearly Independence Day!

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