Another chance for more showers and storms will remain in the forecast for the next few days before a mid-level ridge of high pressure attempts to develop across Texas with the sinking and compressing air impacting part of Oklahoma this weekend. This means the rain and storms chances will decrease and the heat will increase Sunday into a few days next week with temps slightly above the seasonal average.
Highs today will be around 90 with a heat index nearing 100 or so. A few showers or storms may develop by midday. But the better chance will arrive later tonight as a mid-level wave ejects across the central plains helping to push a cold front into the state with a line of thunderstorm activity likely tonight. Severe weather threats will remain with damaging winds and hail the main issues along with pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall. The timing of the front should be later tonight, maybe around the 7 pm to 11 pm hour for locations near and north of the metro, and from midnight to 4 am for southeastern and east central Oklahoma. We do have some varied timing in the data this morning but the trend appears to be for a faster and not later start time. Some data suggest storms could fire in southeastern Kansas around 5 to 6 pm tonight and near the metro around 8-9 pm with other data suggesting 7-8 in southeastern Kansas and around 10 pm near the metro. I’ll offer a decent compromise to include a little of both!
Thursday morning the showers and storms will exit the area quickly with northeast winds and highs in the upper 80s to near 90 for the afternoon. Muggy conditions will more than likely remain with heat index values near 99.
Later Thursday night into Friday morning the upper air flow will quickly transition from the northwest to southeast allowing for a storm complex to be near the area during the pre-dawn hours. The threat for significant severe weather will remain low but there could be some wind reports to our west or southwest. We may have another MCS nearing the region late Friday night into Saturday morning but the signal for both of these possibilities is not as pronounced this morning compared to yesterday at this hour as the 12k NAM and GFS differ on some trajectories. I’ll use the handy 40% pop for both periods.
The weekend will feature lows in the lower to mid-70s and highs in the lower 90s Saturday and mid-90s Sunday and Monday. The heat index values may be nearing 100 to 104 for a few spots. It’s not impossible that we’ll see a few storms Saturday or Sunday but the coverage should be very low and mostly across far southeaster or east central Oklahoma.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.